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It's 'Round To It' Time ~
Saturday, October 17, 2026
This Single Fund Owns Every Major AI Stock and Pays Weekly
Major catalyst from 20 years ago just returned
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Right now, a small group of stocks could be sitting in front of the biggest gains I've seen in my career.
And I think the catalyst just hit... in a remote mine up in the Canadian north.
The last time this sector had a shock like the one forming now, tiny producers went vertical.
One could have turned a $1,000 stake into more than $1.3 million.
It started in October 2006. A half-built mine called Cigar Lake breached its wall, water poured in faster than the pumps could handle, and the most important new source of supply on Earth vanished under the floodwater.
Uranium ran from the $50 range to $136 in eight months.
Then this past May, the water came back.
Flooding washed out the supply route into the largest uranium complex on the planet, and the biggest high-grade mine in the world scaled back.
In July, Cigar Lake went down a second time.
The exact mine that lit the fuse in 2006... choking off supply again, at the worst possible moment.
For the third time in fifty years, the same forces are stacking on this sector at once.
I'm calling it the Third Convergence Event.
And I've put my own money behind three small companies sitting directly in front of it.
Let's get it,
Gerardo Del Real
More Reading from MarketBeat
Only 20 Stocks Are Holding Up the Market: 3 Bargains Outside AI
Reported by Bridget Bennett. Published: 10/8/2026.
Key Points
- Whitney Tilson argues record index highs mask a broad bear market, since 19 of the top 20 S&P 500 contributors are AI-related while most stocks lag.
- Tilson favors three non-AI value picks: speculative Joby Aviation, undervalued Casey's General Stores, and underappreciated Eli Lilly, each hit by sentiment rather than fundamentals.
- Each stock has a specific catalyst to watch: Joby's first commercial flight, Casey's in-store same-store sales, and Eli Lilly's retatrutide FDA filing.
- Special Report: Grand Canyon Discovery Reshapes America's Energy Tax Credits.
The market has hit a record high, and almost none of that gain belongs to the average stock.
That gap is where Whitney Tilson of Stansberry Research is doing his shopping. His case is that the index is masking a broad bear market underneath and that the clearest values currently sit outside artificial intelligence. Three names carry the argument: a speculation, an off-the-radar mid-cap and the world's largest drugmaker.
A Record-High Index Is Masking a Market-Wide Bear Market
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Click here for instant access to the free report nowBy Tilson's count, 19 of the 20 largest contributors to the S&P 500 this year are AI-related, and those names account for essentially the entire 13% index return. The other 480 stocks are collectively flat. Roughly 59% of S&P 500 components trade at least 20% below their all-time highs, and about one in six is down 50% or more.
That is what a bifurcated market looks like, and it is why a value investor staring at a 99th-percentile Shiller multiple still has a long shopping list.
Tilson follows the old Buffett-Munger approach: estimate what a private buyer would pay for the whole business, then buy at a steep discount. The strategy requires the market to make mistakes, and a market this narrow makes plenty. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) was a recent example. Investors priced in the possibility that agentic AI would gut enterprise software subscriptions, but large corporations declined to rip out systems that worked, and the stock recovered sharply.
Joby Aviation Is a Speculation With a Second Buyer Attached
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) builds electric aircraft that take off vertically and then rotate their motors forward to fly. The aircraft operates like a helicopter but is roughly 99% quieter, which is the entire commercial argument: Most helicopters are not welcome over cities.
Tilson first recommended the stock near $7 three years ago. It tripled, then round-tripped back to about $7 and a $6 billion market cap. The caveats are significant: no revenue, no FAA approval and no commercial flights. This is a position to size carefully, not a core holding.
The market is pricing in a delay. Commercial service in the United Arab Emirates, a 30-minute trip between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, was delayed when regional conflict interrupted the timeline, and investors who saw no near-term catalyst sold. U.S. approval is realistically one to two years away, although Joby sits further along than any competitor.
What could change sentiment is the first paying flight. What limits the downside is everything else the company owns: electric motor and battery technology, an engineering team and aircraft already delivered to the U.S. Air Force, where a silent airframe has obvious value. If air taxis never become a business, Tilson expects a bidding war from electric vehicle makers and defense contractors.
Casey's General Stores Looks Like Walmart Did in 1988
Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) operates about 3,000 convenience stores across 19 states from its Des Moines headquarters, generating roughly $18 billion in revenue against a $22 billion market cap. It is the third-largest convenience chain in the United States and the fifth-largest seller of pizza, which is the point: The high-margin "inside" business carries the model, and more than half of sales now run through the app.
The stock fell about 34% in two months, reducing its valuation from 35 times forward earnings to 26 times. The trigger was a quarter in which fuel margin drove the beat while in-store comps decelerated and management reaffirmed, rather than raised, guidance. At a premium multiple, reaffirming guidance is not enough.
Nothing about the company's competitive position changed. Walmart (NYSE: WMT) generated the same $18.6 billion in trailing sales in mid-1988, with nearly identical profitability and almost the same forward multiple, and has since become close to a 100-bagger. The comparison is not a forecast. It is a reminder that 26 times earnings is cheap for a business that can compound earnings at a double-digit rate for a decade. Casey's targets towns of 500 to 20,000 people, and Texas alone has roughly 2,000 of them.
Eli Lilly's Next Obesity Drug Is the Part the Market Is Discounting
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) carries a trillion-dollar market cap and trades near 40 times trailing earnings, making it look like a story investors have already missed. Tilson believes the company is in the middle innings at most.
Two factors support that view. The first is retatrutide, Lilly's next-generation weight-loss candidate and the first to target three hormone receptors at once, rather than the two targeted by tirzepatide in Zepbound and Mounjaro. Average weight loss in trials has been closer to 29%, compared with roughly 20% for Zepbound, with less muscle loss. Lilly plans to file with the FDA in early 2027, putting a launch in late 2027 at the earliest.
The second is the size of the eventual market. Studies continue to identify benefits beyond weight loss, including effects on fatty liver disease, sleep apnea, inflammation, cholesterol and addictive behavior. The argument is that demand eventually extends beyond people who need to lose weight, with low-dose use becoming common among those who do not.
Using estimates that Tilson believes are too conservative, Lilly trades near 28 times forward earnings, below where it has traded for most of the past few years.
Where the Risk and the Upside Sit
The risks are uneven. Joby can drift for quarters without a catalyst and lose goodwill along the way. Casey's needs in-store comps to stabilize, because a fuel-led beat leaves guidance looking fragile. Lilly faces real pricing pressure across the category and a long regulatory runway before retatrutide sells a single dose.
The upside shares one trait: All three stocks sold off on sentiment rather than broken fundamentals, which is the only condition under which a value approach works at all.
Watch the catalysts instead of the quotes: Joby's first commercial flights, Casey's inside same-store sales and Lilly's retatrutide filing. Those are the developments that could move these three stocks.
For investors looking for more of Tilson's insights, visit here.
More Reading from MarketBeat
3 Stocks Raise Dividends, But Which Has Room to Keep Growing?
Reported by Leo Miller. Published: 10/12/2026.
Key Points
- Starbucks raised its dividend by 1.6% to a 2.8% yield despite a high payout ratio, while reportedly exploring a takeover of Chipotle.
- Accenture increased its quarterly dividend by 5% to $1.71 per share after strong earnings drove shares up more than 15%, pushing its yield near 3.5%.
- Curtiss-Wright hiked its dividend 8.3% and expanded buybacks to $700 million, though its yield remains small amid defense sector weakness and leadership turnover.
- Special Report: Grand Canyon Discovery Reshapes America's Energy Tax Credits.
Several big-name stocks across the consulting, defense and consumer discretionary industries are increasing their dividends. Two of these names offer sizable yields above 2.5%, while a lower-yielding company has strong potential to continue increasing its dividend over time.
Among this group, recent developments at coffee giant Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) stand out. Despite a very high payout ratio and being in the midst of a turnaround, the company is boosting its dividend and has reportedly explored purchasing a massive restaurant chain.
Accenture Lifts Dividend, Soars After Latest Earnings
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Click here for instant access to the free report nowConsulting giant Accenture (NYSE: ACN) has had a difficult run in 2026, with shares down approximately 23%. While the stock remains deeply in the red, the situation was much worse earlier in the year. Through mid-June, Accenture stock had fallen more than 50%. One key factor driving the decline was concern that companies could use AI tools to improve their operations, reducing demand for traditional consulting services.
However, shares shot up more than 15% after the company released its latest results. Accenture’s revenue of $18.7 billion was well above expectations, and the firm added nearly 100 clients that initiated their first advanced AI consulting projects with the company.
Accenture also announced a 5% dividend increase, raising its quarterly payment to $1.71. The firm will pay its next dividend on Nov. 13 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 13. Following the increase, Accenture now offers a sizable forward dividend yield of nearly 3.5%.
The company is also in a strong position when it comes to dividend sustainability. Its payout ratio is approximately 48%, well below the 60% level that analysts generally consider healthy. Analysts expect the firm’s payout ratio to improve meaningfully, to around 41%, based on next year’s estimates.
Curtiss-Wright Ups Dividend and Buybacks Amid Defense Downturn
Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW) operates in both the defense and nuclear power industries. Shares put up a strong performance through much of 2026, rising more than 31% through the end of July. However, the stock has taken a turn for the worse in recent months and is now in the red for the year.
Much of this decline has been due to weakness in defense stocks overall. Uncertainty surrounding future defense spending levels has contributed to the weakness, particularly as the midterm elections approach.
Curtiss-Wright has also faced significant leadership changes, including the appointment of a new CEO and the resignation of its CFO, which has weighed on shares.
Nonetheless, Curtiss-Wright announced a significant 8.3% dividend increase, raising its payment to 26 cents per share, although its yield remains small at approximately 0.2%.
The payment date for this latest dividend has passed, but investors can likely receive the increased dividend in future quarters, given the company’s rock-bottom payout ratio of approximately 7%.
This very low payout ratio suggests that the firm can continue increasing its dividend over time, albeit from a small base. The company is also looking to return capital through buybacks, recently increasing its authorization to $700 million, equal to around 3.7% of its market capitalization.
Starbucks Boosts Dividend Amid Chipotle Acquisition Chatter
Starbucks has seen a moderate recovery in its share price during 2026. After delivering a negative 5.3% return in 2025, Starbucks is up approximately 9% year to date.
In its last two earnings reports, Starbucks posted considerable beats on both sales and earnings per share (EPS). Last quarter, Starbucks raised its full-year global comparable sales guidance to nearly 6% and increased its full-year EPS guidance to between $2.55 and $2.65. However, the stock has also come under pressure recently following reports that the company explored a takeover of Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG).
Amid these developments, Starbucks announced a small 1.6% dividend increase, lifting its yield to a strong 2.8%. The company will pay its next 63-cent-per-share dividend on Nov. 27 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 13.
Based on the last 12 months of earnings, its payout ratio of 142% clearly appears unsustainable. However, that figure drops significantly to 95% based on current-year estimates, and analysts expect a further decline to 79% based on next year’s estimates. Nonetheless, these figures remain elevated, making Starbucks’ ability to continue growing its earnings key to sustaining dividend growth.
Niccol’s Next Move: Is a Chipotle Deal on the Menu?
It is important to monitor whether Starbucks actually pursues a Chipotle takeover, a proposition with both pros and cons. Starbucks’ CEO, Brian Niccol, was formerly the CEO of Chipotle. This should give Niccol significant insight into Chipotle’s business and an understanding of why the acquisition could be accretive to Starbucks. Additionally, Chipotle shares are down more than 50% from their all-time highs, making the deal more attractive to Starbucks.
Still, it is questionable whether such an acquisition makes sense at this time, as Starbucks is in the middle of a business turnaround. The company recently lowered its net new-store additions guidance to 440 from between 600 and 650, laid off hundreds of employees and plans to invest $1 billion in store renovations. Acquiring and integrating a giant company like Chipotle would significantly increase operational complexity and execution risk, although it could result in long-term synergies.
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The 5 fastest-moving AI stocks?
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Dear Reader,
137.3% gains in less than 12 months.
That's the hypothetical result Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin saw when he analyzed a basket of 5 top-performing AI stocks behind his new 401(ai) vision.
And Marc immediately noticed something else incredible.
SPEED.
Achieving a 137.3% gain would take the average index fund about 9 years.
Marc's 401(ai) stock basket did it in less than one year. (See the demo here.)
Of course, these results are not typical.
But for Marc, it raised an extraordinary question: Could AI help compress the amount of TIME some investors need to build wealth?
That's especially important if you're 50... 60... or older...
And don't feel like you have another 20 or 30 years to wait.
It's why Marc is now moving full steam ahead with the project.
He calls it the 401(ai).
But don't wait – Marc is aiming his system at the fastest-moving stocks. These opportunities could explode higher at any moment.
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P.S. The 401(ai) approach was built with SPEED in mind. Marc is aiming his system at the fastest-moving AI stocks. So, the longer you wait, the more likely you are to miss out on what could be Marc Chaikin's most important innovation yet. See Marc's new video by clicking here.
Just For You
The AI Buildout Needs Power It Cannot Get: 4 Energy Stocks Already Have It
Author: Bridget Bennett. Posted: 10/4/2026.
Key Points
- Stansberry Research analyst Gabe Marshank argues the AI data center buildout cannot earn its cost of capital once compute pricing resets, putting neocloud business models like CoreWeave, Nebius Group and IREN at risk
- Atlas Energy Solutions and Liberty Energy are building behind-the-meter power that lets data centers skip a five to seven year grid interconnect wait
- Ormat Technologies and Fervo Energy anchor an enhanced geothermal story where the open question is engineering execution, not demand
- Special Report: The Untouched Energy Source Behind a New Eight Year Tax Break
Every valuation in the AI infrastructure trade rests on one quiet assumption: compute will remain scarce enough to keep prices high. That assumption is already showing cracks, and most investors haven't repriced for it.
Gabe Marshank, lead analyst of Market Maven at Stansberry Research, is not an AI skeptic. He uses the technology daily and calls the product brilliant. His argument is narrower and harder to dismiss. The technology works. The business model behind the buildout may not. And if he's right, the capital chasing data centers is headed somewhere very different from the capital chasing power.
The Return-on-Capital Math Behind a $4.5 Trillion Buildout
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Download Crypto Revolution now.Marshank puts the data center buildout at roughly $4.5 trillion by 2030. Based on his numbers, the compute layer would need to generate nearly $1.7 trillion in annual revenue to earn an adequate return on that capital.
For scale, he pegs the existing platform economy—Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) and Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), excluding consumer products—at roughly $1 trillion in revenue today. That means going from a standing start to $1.7 trillion in four years just to break even on the spending.
That matters because the market is treating capital expenditure as if it were value created. Marshank has seen that movie before. He points to the biodiesel buildout, when plants were valued at multiples of the money sunk into the ground until commodity economics took over and the equity went to zero.
AI Compute Pricing Is Already Rolling Over
His core claim is that data centers produce a commodity: AI compute. Supply of that commodity is set to rise enormously, and capitalism is likely to do what it always does when supply surges.
The key detail is that compute doesn't sit idle. Operating costs run near 3% of a data center's total capital cost, so the machines run regardless. Supply meets demand, and AI compute pricing becomes the clearing mechanism—much like an airline selling the last seat at whatever price travelers are willing to pay rather than flying it empty.
Marshank tracks published rate cards. By his count, prices were about $3.50 per kilowatt in 2022, climbed to roughly $4 to $4.25 as AI demand took off and are now beginning to correct, even as demand headlines remain loud. Long-term contracts muddy the picture with de-escalators and discounts to list, but he's convinced prices are headed down.
The comparison he keeps returning to is the bandwidth bubble of 1996 to 2001. Capital went into the ground, supply came online, pricing collapsed by roughly 90%, and Level 3, Global Crossing and WorldCom blew up on revenue that never matched the model.
Neocloud Stocks and the Missing Moat
This is where he gets blunt about neocloud stocks. He sees returns turning negative for CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) and IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN), and he struggles to identify what differentiates them.
His framing is straightforward: the business model is spending itself. If a neocloud can commit $50 billion and Alphabet can commit far more, scale alone isn't a moat. He notes that IREN's $9.7 billion GPU cloud agreement with Microsoft, disclosed in a securities filing, implied returns he would describe as merely adequate in the hottest market anyone has seen.
The risk, in his telling, is simple. The capital was spent on the belief that rising volume would lift revenue. If volume rises while pricing falls, revenue never covers expenses.
Behind-the-Meter Power Offers a Shortcut Around the Grid
The bullish half of his case sits in energy, where the AI bottleneck is real and physical. Two names come straight out of the oil patch: Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) and Liberty Energy (NYSE: LBRT).
Both are building behind-the-meter power, meaning on-site generation that sidesteps the five-to-seven-year wait in the utility interconnection queue.
The U.S. grid is slow to absorb new sources because every addition has to be balanced.
Pressure pumping taught these companies how to deploy enormous horsepower on short notice. Pointing that capability at a data center is the same skill set with a better customer.
Geothermal Stocks Trade on an Engineering Question
Liberty Energy also moved into geothermal under founder Chris Wright, now the U.S. energy secretary. Marshank calls geothermal the most overlooked energy source in the world, and his two names are Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA) and Fervo Energy (NASDAQ: FRVO).
Ormat brings decades of legacy assets. Fervo is the pure play, applying horizontal drilling and multistage completions to create enhanced geothermal systems. Its Cape Station project in Beaver County, Utah, is permitted for up to 2 gigawatts, and Google has signed a 396-megawatt power purchase agreement there, with an option for roughly 600 megawatts more, within a broader 3-gigawatt framework running through 2033.
The stock trades below its $27 May IPO price, pressured by interconnection delays that pushed revenue recognition to the right. Marshank shrugs at that. The real question, he says, is engineering: whether a closed-loop system can retain the water it pumps underground. If it does, the upside is large. If water starts leaking from the wells, that's the sell signal.
Compare that timeline with nuclear, on which he was early and right years ago. New nuclear takes a minimum of five to seven years in the United States. Geothermal proof points could arrive within two.
What Should Actually Change Your Mind
Marshank doesn't use stop-losses, and he doesn't trade on headlines. Macro inputs are the most efficiently priced information in the market, so an edge is far easier to find in a single security than in the bond market. His horizon runs three to five years, looking for three- to five-times outcomes.
The risk is that pricing in geothermal and distributed power disappoints in the same way he expects compute pricing to disappoint. The upside is that both depend on physical scarcity rather than a commodity whose supply is multiplying.
His discipline is worth borrowing regardless of whether you buy the call: decide in advance what would make you sell, then watch that—not the tape. Because if your only exit plan is panicking after a 50% drawdown, you may as well panic now. For investors who want to run that kind of screen themselves, Marshank's team has built an AI-powered research tool for finding asymmetric setups at Stansberry Research.
Just For You
Don’t Get NVIDIA’s Reflection AI Interest Wrong: Its Moat Could Deepen
Author: Thomas Hughes. Posted: 10/14/2026.
Key Points
- NVIDIA is reportedly exploring a deal to acquire or expand its stake in Reflection AI, a startup building open-weight foundation models and agentic tools.
- Such a deal would likely reinforce NVIDIA's hardware-centric moat rather than shift its strategy, though it could draw regulatory scrutiny similar to its Groq arrangement.
- With a consensus Buy rating from 55 analysts and roughly 40% implied upside, NVIDIA heads into its Nov. 18 earnings report amid decelerating but still strong growth forecasts.
- Special Report: The Untouched Energy Source Behind a New Eight Year Tax Break
Being AI-lab agnostic has long been a pillar of NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) strategy. Selling to all labs creates a deep moat, making the question of which one wins largely irrelevant: NVIDIA benefits because it sells hardware, ecosystems, and services to the industry. For now, that moat is based largely on silicon, but it deepens with every advancement along the stack, entrenching the company’s position as a comprehensive, universal AI development ecosystem.
So, what happens when the company breaks out of its mold? Speculation is mounting that this may become increasingly likely. NVIDIA is reportedly in early talks to acquire Reflection AI or increase its investment in the startup. Reflection AI is a newer company founded by former Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) DeepMind researchers.
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NVIDIA’s Moat Will Deepen If It Acquires Reflection AI
Investors should note that this move would not necessarily alter NVIDIA’s strategy; it could strengthen it. Owning a developer of open-weight AI tools would help NVIDIA deepen its moat. Making AI models more widely accessible keeps the focus on its hardware and ecosystem rather than on which model developer wins.
The likely outcome is that model developers and, more importantly, inference providers will continue investing in NVIDIA technology as demand for AI-enabled enterprise and consumer services grows. It is not just about the models but also the equipment used to run them. Models are already a dime a dozen; the question for businesses and consumers is which ones to use and how to access them. This move could cement, secure, and strengthen NVIDIA’s revenue and earnings outlook as the AI industry expands.
And NVIDIA is not new to the business. NVIDIA previously made an $800 million direct investment in Reflection AI, anchoring a $2 billion funding round that valued the company at $8 billion. The partnership not only provides Reflection AI with capital but also strengthens its ties to NVIDIA’s GPU ecosystem, which it uses to train its models. Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) is another critical player, having secured a $1 billion contract from Reflection AI for cloud capacity and services.
The question of whether owning a model maker would give NVIDIA a new revenue stream or strain its relationships with AI labs remains open. NVIDIA may be more interested in Reflection AI for its position in the AI ecosystem than for its revenue. If NVIDIA wants to keep low-cost, open-weight AI models under Western control, an acquisition could be strategically valuable. The risk is that China emerges as the leader in low-cost models, leading the industry toward its hardware and ecosystem rather than NVIDIA’s.
NVIDIA Will Control Reflection AI; the Only Question Is How
The most important question is how the deal might be structured. Investors should consider the possibility of a nonstandard workaround, such as a hire-to-acquire strategy, although even that is not assured. NVIDIA may simply hire Reflection AI’s staff and license its technology, potentially avoiding a lengthy merger review without necessarily escaping regulatory scrutiny.
Regulatory oversight also poses risks, as authorities have already expressed interest in other deals. NVIDIA licensed technology from Groq and hired several of its executives, a company also started by Alphabet engineers, in a similar arrangement. That move raised questions from lawmakers about whether NVIDIA intentionally sought to avoid regulatory oversight.
Those raising concerns include Senators Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, who argue that NVIDIA’s AI dominance may threaten competition. In this environment, the company will have to address regulatory concerns carefully.
Analysts remain bullish on NVIDIA, although the potential deal’s impact remains uncertain. The acquisition could represent an extension of NVIDIA’s strategy rather than a strategic shift. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating from the 55 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, with a consensus price target suggesting more than 40% upside from mid-October trading levels.
NVIDIA’s next visible catalyst is its upcoming earnings report. Expected around Nov. 18, the report is forecast to show a deceleration to about 90% year-over-year revenue and earnings growth. The company consistently outperforms estimates and could do so again this quarter. Global investment in AI infrastructure across industries continues to drive demand for its core products. Investors will be watching growth as well as profitability, cash flow, and capital returns, all of which have been accelerating.
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