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Thursday, July 18, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: A Better Brexit?

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Nearly 50 European leaders on Thursday will descend on Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire, England, for a one-day session of the European Political Community. It'll be a big moment for new U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is looking to amend the post-Brexit relationship with the European Union. Defense and security discussions are on the menu, but trade is also in focus, especially as the parties attempt to build closer cooperation on shared issues.

Quote: "Our government is committed to resetting the relationship with the European Union, to strengthen ties, reinforce our security and tackle barriers to trade," said Nick Thomas-Symonds, Minister for the Constitution and European Union Relations. "The EU and member states are among the U.K.'s closest friends and allies. With war in Europe, and shared global challenges, in areas such as climate change and illegal migration, a strong U.K.-EU alliance is vital."

Labour under Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU single market or customs union, though it will seek to improve the bilateral relationship via renegotiations. Post-economic Brexit complaints have been seen across many sectors, ranging from agriculture and the creative industry to manufacturing and just-in-time supply chains. There has also been lots of additional paperwork and applications, the need to manage multiple sets of quality standards and VAT payments, as well as a divergence in regulatory frameworks that has impacted investment.

Different channels: The European Union has been more cautious about potential changes, maintaining that it would work within "existing agreements" that are the "cornerstone of EU-Britain relations." As expressed previously, the bloc doesn't want the U.K. to have all the upsides of being part of the EU, without the membership that comes with it. That will make cherry-picking terms a lot harder, and with large-scale renegotiations off the table, British policymakers will need to pull off a delicate balancing act to keep within Brexit agreements and promises.

     
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It's a wrap!

Our 2024 Investing Summit was an amazing success, and we had a great time getting to meet and mingle with our community members.

Held on June 18 at the Hilton Midtown in New York, this was our first in-person event of this magnitude, and we're excited about the positive feedback we've received.

The day was packed with noteworthy speakers covering a wide variety of topics, from crypto and AI to the broader economic uncertainty we see across the market.

You can see all the highlights in our Summit video library.

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Media

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is reportedly evaluating several strategic options, including selling assets or splitting its Max streaming service and movie studio businesses from its legacy TV networks. The move would leave its TV group with most of its $39B debt load. People close to WBD have also informally approached rival media groups to gauge interest in potential M&A options for some of its assets. Bank of America warned that a breakup could have a "devastating" impact on bondholders, similar to what happened after rival Lionsgate's spinoff of its studio business (LION) from Starz. (24 comments)

     
Manufacturing
Deere (DE) is the latest company to review diversity policies, and has decided to end its participation and support for social awareness events. The farm machinery maker reaffirmed that diversity quotas and pronoun identification are not company policy. The decision came after political commentator Robby Starbuck argued that DEI policies were hurting Deere's business as the company implements job cuts amid weaker demand for farming equipment. Last month, Tractor Supply (TSCO) eliminated DEI goals and carbon emission targets that it said were unpopular with its customers. (25 comments)
     
Trending
President Biden is losing the support of senior Democrats amid concerns over his ability to win the presidential election. He also just tested positive for COVID-19, which will sideline campaigning efforts, while the DNC kicked a virtual roll call on the nomination to August. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw, and Stifel last week assigned a 40% chance of him dropping out. Betting markets are now favoring Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee after Biden said he was willing to transfer power to her if health issues prevent him from serving a second term. (10 comments)
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -2.4%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China +0.5%. India +0.8%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow -0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.2% to $81.26. Gold +0.4% to $2,468.90. Bitcoin -0.8% to $64,614.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 4.19%.
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
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Restaurant M&A: Darden (DRI) to buy Chuy's (CHUY) for $605M.

Capital One (COF) offers $265B community benefits in Discover deal.

Beyond Meat (BYND) in talks with bondholders over restructuring.

GE Vernova (GEV) sinks as Vineyard Wind operations suspended.

Biden to forgive $1.2B in student loans for 35,000 borrowers.

J&J (JNJ) results beat estimates as pharma segment outperforms.

Petco (WOOF) appoints Five Below's (FIVE) Joel Anderson as CEO.
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.
 
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