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Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: Conventional Crypto

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The cryptoverse will reach some new horizons today with the launch of spot ether ETFs following their approval by the SEC. Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading higher before the funds hit the market, rising 1.3% to $3,520 in early trade. It was only six months ago that the first spot bitcoin ETFs came online and demand for those funds saw net cumulative inflows of more than $15.1B since they started trading on Jan. 11.

Backdrop: Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain, which touts benefits such as smart contracts and customizable applications for DeFi. Spot ether ETFs will track the performance of the crypto as an underlying asset, making buying and reporting easier due to liquidity and transparency. The simple-to-understand product will also bring things more mainstream, and give institutional and retail investors another opportunity for crypto diversification. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink calls bitcoin 'digital gold,' says he's no longer a skeptic

"The thing that people should keep in mind is that more money into crypto and blockchain is not a rising tide that lifts all boats," said Paul Brody, Global Blockchain Leader at EY, citing similarities to the precious metals industry. "Gold is $14T-$15T in market cap. That is more than 10x larger than the next largest precious metal and I think we will see the same kind of behavior in cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is digital gold, and it will behave like digital gold, and it will be as dominant to other crypto assets as gold is to other precious metals. Similarly, ethereum has become the dominant kind of tokenized asset and smart contract platform."

Note that the new ether ETFs won't permit staking, which gives investors a source of revenue by earning a yield on token deposits. That could weigh on future demand, with the SEC likely not interested in adding complications or further deliberations about security classifications. There are also leveraged ether-linked ETFs on the market, such as the 2x Ether ETF (ETHU), though there are other risks to consider there, as mentioned by SA analyst Mike Fay.

Who's next? OG players bitcoin (BTC-USD) and ethereum are more decentralized than other ecosystems - and benefit from bigger market caps and liquidity - but others are trying to break through. Late last month, VanEck became the first asset manager to file for a spot solana (SOL-USD) ETF in the U.S., while CBOE recently filed a request with the SEC to list ETFs tied to the cryptocurrency. It's difficult to predict where American regulators will stand on the new applications, given the current regulatory environment. Unlike other regimes, like the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) infrastructure in Europe, things boil down to individual circumstances in the U.S., with lots of time, regulatory clarity, and amendments needed to approve any new applications. Check out the real-time market data page for crypto on Seeking Alpha

     
M&A
Given mounting antitrust and investor concerns, cybersecurity startup Wiz has ended talks with Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) for a $23B deal that would've been the tech giant's largest acquisition so far. Wiz will instead pursue an IPO, as previously planned, while the decision marks another blow for Alphabet in the M&A space after it shelved plans to buy HubSpot (HUBS). "Saying no to such humbling offers is tough, but with our exceptional team, I feel confident in making that choice," Wiz CEO Assaf Rappaport said in a reported memo. Alphabet will report Q2 results after the bell today amid lofty Wall Street expectations. (19 comments)
     
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Tech
That's not all. Google (GOOG) has finally decided to drop its plan of removing third-party cookies from its Chrome browser following years of delays, and will alternatively offer users the option to opt-out. "Instead of deprecating third-party cookies, we would introduce a new experience in Chrome that lets people make an informed choice that applies across their Web browsing, and they'd be able to adjust that choice at any time," the tech giant said in a blog post. The U.K.'s antitrust watchdog welcomed the news, which sent ad-tech stocks higher on Monday, including Criteo (CRTO) +10.4% and Trade Desk (TTD) +4.6%.
     
Robotics
Tesla (TSLA) is driving higher at the start of the week as CEO Elon Musk talks up the potential of the Optimus business. "Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026," he announced, following a previous declaration to start selling the robots by the end of 2025. As for Q2 results due in the post-market today, there will be a sharper focus on Tesla's strategic plan, as well as updates related to next-generation vehicles and how they fit into Musk's robotaxi concept. (81 comments)
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.9%. China -1.7%. India -0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +1.2%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude -0.3% to $78.17. Gold +0.6% to $2,408.90. Bitcoin -1.2% to $66,642.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 4.23%.
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
WSB survey results: Minimal earnings season risks for S&P 500.

Nvidia (NVDA) said to be working on new AI chip for China.

Global outage: CrowdStrike (CRWD) slips on analyst downgrades.

Verizon (VZ) falls as mixed earnings raise growth concerns.

WBD (WBD) taps matching rights in attempt to stay on NBA deal.

Slow adoption: Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY) tones down EV goals.

AP: Enough Democratic delegates back Harris as nominee.

...but seen as tougher on energy industry than Biden.

Mattel (MAT) jumps on report of takeover bid from L Catterton.

Johnson Controls (JCI) to sell assets to Bosch in $8.1B deal.
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
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