Welcome to earnings season! Nearly a quarter of S&P 500 companies will publish their Q2 results this week, including Alphabet, Coca-Cola, Tesla ...
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| | Outlook Welcome to earnings season! Nearly a quarter of S&P 500 companies will publish their Q2 results this week, including Alphabet, Coca-Cola, Tesla and Visa. Following the recent rotation, how will the latest numbers impact the S&P 500?· Boost the index (can't stop the rally for long) · Drag the benchmark down (worse earnings than H1) · Flatline (too much uncertainty still out there) Take the survey here and don't forget to share your thoughts in the WSB comments section. | | Top News  Getty Images Following overwhelming pressure from senior Democrats, President Biden has abandoned his re-election bid in a hefty announcement that many saw coming. He has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the party's new presidential nominee, with a month to go before the DNC and only 100 days until the general election. State Democratic Party chairs have since thrown their weight behind her candidacy, though other prominent Democrats are calling for an open process to nominate a candidate (possible challengers?), while others will likely wait until she picks a running mate.
Timeline: Things have only spiraled for Biden since a halting performance at the June 27 presidential debate. A rebound in subsequent press conferences and interviews never materialized, with blunders like mixing up the names of Harris and Trump, as well as Ukraine's Zelenskyy and Russia's Putin, and referring to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin as "the Black man." In contrast to Biden's incoherent sentences, his chief rival has been making headlines for his perseverance, especially after an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, which led to iconic photographs of a bloody Trump holding up his fist in defiance.
Stock futures opened mildly higher after Biden formally passed the torch to Harris, with no significant policy uncertainty seen as extending from the latest announcement. She is a staunch defender of Biden's economic approach, such as upgrading infrastructure (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act), subsidies for green projects (Inflation Reduction Act), and reshoring critical industries (CHIPS and Science Act), and is also largely expected to stick to his foreign policy playbook. Harris' next interaction with the press will come today at 11:30 AM ET during an event on the South Lawn celebrating the NCAA championship teams.
What does it mean for markets? "At the moment, not much," TS Lombard wrote in a fresh research note. "Polling before candidates start to run is notoriously wrong (DeSantis). Markets are priced for a Trump win and possible Republican sweep. Once the Dem Pres & VP are chosen, running, and impacting polls, will there be a market reaction (polls now undercount Dems). On economic policy, each side reflects a Jacksonian rather than Hamiltonian tilt. Yield curves do not have to wait for the Fed to turn steeply positive." (10 comments)
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any content and tools on the platform are offered for information purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. | | Global The People's Bank of China has become the latest central bank to cut interest rates, a move aimed at "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments to better support the real economy." China's economy has been struggling of late, with the most recent GDP reading missing estimates and June retail sales rising at the slowest pace since December 2022. Over the weekend, the country also unveiled plans to boost finances of indebted local governments by shifting more tax revenue from central coffers, following the ruling Communist Party's Third Plenum. ( 1 comment) | | Cryptocurrency Spot ethereum ( ETH-USD) ETFs are expected to begin trading tomorrow, but crypto traders appear to be underestimating the full impact of the highly anticipated launch. Ether has risen some 49% this year amid a wider crypto rally, but its performance has been poor relative to its peers, according to SA analyst Richard Durant. While the SEC approved key requirements from prospective spot ETF issuers such as BlackRock ( BLK) and VanEck, their S-1 filings are yet to be greenlit. If approved, crypto experts see ether rising over 25% and ETF inflows crossing $20B in the initial months. ( 12 comments) | | Global Middle East tensions are continuing to escalate, after Israel carried out airstrikes on a major Houthi-controlled port on Saturday, in retaliation to the group's drone strike near the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv. Israeli warplanes hit the port city Hodeida in Yemen, which Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu said was used as an entry point for weapons supplied by Iran. The Houthis vowed to retaliate, while the U.S. reaffirmed its "ironclad commitment" to Israel's right to self-defense. The latest attacks may also complicate an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal that had been in the works, and will likely compound ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. ( 3 comments) | | Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -1.2%. Hong Kong +1.3%. China -0.6%. India -0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +1.4%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.9%. Crude -0.4% to $78.34. Gold +0.4% to $2,408.50. Bitcoin +0.9% to $67,448.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 4.23%. Today's Economic Calendar | | | | | Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day. | | | | |
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