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Monday, August 19, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: Mpox Watch

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More cases of mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, are surfacing across the globe, with the virus spreading to Sweden, Pakistan and the Philippines. It was enough for the World Health Organization to declare a global public health emergency last week, which can accelerate vaccine access and distribution. "It's clear that a coordinated international response is needed," WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared, adding that it will help "stop these outbreaks and save lives."

What is it? Mpox is a virus that can be fatal, causing fever, aches and pus-filled lesions. The virus has been sequenced into two types, including the severe clade I group (formerly known as the Congo Basin strain), as well as the clade II variant (previously known as the West African strain). The latter was behind an outbreak that resulted in around 100K cases worldwide in 2022, but clade I has now been spreading internationally following an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that led to more than 1,100 deaths since January.

Compared to the 2022 wave that largely spread among men who have sex with men, a new variant of the Congo Basin strain, called clade Ib, now appears to be spreading more easily through routine close contact. While it's usually mild, it can kill vulnerable people, like the immunocompromised and children. Some nations, like China, have put in place surveillance measures at ports of entry, screening people from areas with confirmed mpox cases and sanitizing goods entering the country, but others believe the impact of the virus will be low if certain precautions are taken.

Market movement: Danish biotech Bavarian Nordic (OTCPK:BVNKF) has been a big beneficiary since the announcement by the WHO, with its shares soaring in recent sessions amid plans to ramp up mpox vaccine production. Emergent BioSolutions (EBS), which has an approved jab and treatment for related-disease smallpox, is also up 7% in early trade on Monday, along with test maker Co-Diagnostics (CODX). Some mpox players have even gone to the moon (for now), such as Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP), Virax Biolabs (VRAX) and GeoVax (GOVX), which are each up over 50% premarket, as well as Applied DNA Sciences (APDN) skyrocketing 186%. (6 comments)

     
Global
Chinese stock exchanges have stopped releasing real-time data on foreign fund flows. That'll deprive investors of a key sentiment gauge at a time when international traders have been net sellers of Chinese stocks for months. Foreign investors have been exiting China's $8.3T stock market in droves, with the YTD tally reportedly reaching negative as of Friday. The dialing back of transparency has further dented foreign investors' confidence in China, which already stopped disclosing intraday foreign flows data and real-time estimates of mutual fund products' net value.
     
Automotive
Get used to hearing the term "price gouging," which is being tossed around on the campaign trail and in the business world. "For years, Stellantis (STLA) has sold fewer cars but made more in profits. What does that tell you? They're price gouging," United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain announced in a new video, accusing CEO Carlos Tavares for going back on commitments the company made in its last labor pact. Tavares recently pointed to issues with Stellantis' U.S. operations, and has been cutting jobs at U.S. plants to rein in costs. (11 comments)
     
Economy
Just days after heightening its recession gauge to 25% from 15%, Goldman Sachs has reduced its view on the probability of a U.S. recession next year. A slew of favorable macro data in recent days prompted the reversal, but it raises some doubts over generic forecasts when things are looking so fluid. "Now, we have moved it back down to 20% because the data released since August 2 - including retail sales and jobless claims - shows no sign of recession," the team wrote, adding that they would probably cut recession probability back to 15% if the jobs report due on Sept. 6 "looks reasonably good." (25 comments)
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.8%. Hong Kong +0.8%. China +0.5%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.04%. S&P +0.01%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude -1.1% to $74.69. Gold -0.1% to $2,536.60. Bitcoin -3% to $58,108.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 3.88%.
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
Take the latest Wall Street Breakfast Sentiment Survey here.

Boeing (BA), Lockheed (LMT) in talks to sell rocket-launch JV.

Rivian (RIVN) pauses Amazon (AMZN) delivery van production.

Powell tells banks to work with Fed on increased capital proposal.

Delays impact 40% of Biden administration's biggest climate projects.

Work stoppage at Canada's biggest railroads may affect U.S. trade.

Elon Musk's X closing Brazil operations due to 'censorship orders.'

FDA is said to clear updated COVID shots as early as next week.

Costco (COST) workers in Virginia vote to join Teamsters contract.

Evercore ISI screens banks likely to fare better when Fed cuts rates.
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