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Thursday, August 8, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: Stuck In Space

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What goes up must come down, unless it's a Boeing (BA) Starliner. The spacecraft has faced helium leaks (for propulsion) and thruster issues (for deorbiting) since flying to the International Space Station in June, stranding astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams in the far reaches of the thermosphere. The mission to the ISS was supposed to only last eight days, but two months have already passed, and there's now talk of the situation lasting until early 2025.

Snapshot: There have been disagreements about the data and potential risks tied to Starliner amid investigations that are still ongoing. While Boeing has vouched for the craft, NASA leadership is still debating whether the vehicle can be deemed safe to return to Earth. The agency is now weighing a plan to bring back the astronauts via Boeing rival SpaceX, which has delivered food and supplies to the station, including extra clothes for Wilmore and Williams.

The coming weeks will be critical as a decision will have to be made whether to include two empty seats on the next SpaceX mission - whose launch has been pushed to September and has a return date of Feb. 2025. "If NASA decides to change the mission, we will take the actions necessary to configure Starliner for an uncrewed return," Boeing responded in a statement. However, it would be the latest in a series of reputation problems for the company (MAX jet crashes, door plug blowout and guilty plea) that will need to be resolved by new CEO Kelly Ortberg, who starts in his role today.

Out of this world: NASA's Commercial Crew Program was structured as a multi-tiered competition to get private sector companies to produce the most cost-effective, innovative and safe way to get to the International Space Station. While SpaceX has already sent nine manned missions to the ISS with its Crew Dragon capsule, Boeing has so far incurred $1.4B in accounting losses for its program, as well as many issues and delays during flight testing and manufacturing. If Boeing faces more trouble certifying the Starliner, it would deal a big blow to the ambitions of the aerospace giant, whose resume goes back to the Apollo moon missions.

     
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Media
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) tumbled 10.5% AH on Wednesday as it posted an almost $10B loss for Q2. It was mainly due to a massive writedown of the value of its cable networks, reflecting how streaming has eroded the traditional cable TV business, as well as softness in the U.S. ad market and uncertainty related to affiliate and sports rights renewals. "Am I disappointed about the impairment? Yes," CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels declared. "There's been talk about recovery (in TV) a year, year and a half ago. It hasn't really happened." (48 comments)
     
Consumer
Cracking down on membership-sharing, Costco (COST) is setting up devices at store entrances to discourage non-members from shopping at its locations. "Once deployed, prior to entering, all members must scan their physical or digital membership card," the company said in a press release. "Guests must also be accompanied by a valid member for entry." The move comes soon after the retailer hiked its membership fees for the first time in seven years, while its low prices continue to attract shoppers, with the latest monthly sales rising 7.1%. COST shares are up 23% YTD. (13 comments)
     
Outlook
"The spot component of the global carry basket would suggest that 75% of carry trades have been removed," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a fresh research note. Much of the market volatility over the past week is said to have emanated in Japan, where a carry trade based on the yen went sour as the BOJ raised rates during the same week the Fed signaled its intention to cut. "The clock is [still] ticking for the G10 carry," the analysts noted, describing another carry trade that involves borrowing at low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. (4 comments)
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.7%. Hong Kong +0.1%. China flat. India -0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.2%. Paris -1.2%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.1% to $75.15. Gold +0.4% to $2,442.70. Bitcoin +0.2% to $57,373.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 3.92%.
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
Trump: U.S. should fill up Strategic Petroleum Reserve immediately.

Boeing (BA) doesn't know who reinstalled 737 door plug incorrectly.

Disney falls as analysts weigh weaker Parks results, Hulu deal costs.

Travel slump: Airbnb (ABNB) share losses accelerate on soft outlook.

JPMorgan's (JPM) Dimon still sees 35%-40% chance of soft landing.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rises after Q2 earnings top expectations.

Mortgage refinancing fires up as borrowing rates hit lowest in a year.

Shopify (SHOP) soars as gross merchandise volume tops estimates.

Tropical Storm Debby makes second landfall in South Carolina.

Report: Intel (INTC) passed on investing in OpenAI in 2017/18.
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