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Saturday, August 24, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets

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The U.S. stock market finished sharply higher Friday, sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's strongest signal yet that interest rate cuts are coming. "The time has come for cuts," Powell said at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, increasingly confident that inflation will return to the central bank's 2% target. Big Tech stocks led by Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) rallied with particular strength as investors hoped a lower-rate environment would benefit the group. Treasury yields finished broadly lower, with the two-year yield dropping 9.6 basis points to finish at 3.912%, the third-lowest closing level this year. For the week, the Dow Jones average jumped nearly +1.3%, the Nasdaq Composite added +1.4%, and the S&P 500 gained +1.5% after all three benchmark indexes gained more than 1% on Friday, and the Dow Jones and S&P scored their second-highest closes ever. Read a preview of next week's major events in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.

Healthcare
More cases of mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, surfaced across the globe, with the virus spreading to Sweden, Pakistan, the Philippines, and a new strain surfacing in Thailand. It was enough for the World Health Organization to declare a global public health emergency, which can accelerate vaccine access and distribution. Stocks of mpox vaccine and test makers surged this week, such as Bavarian Nordic (OTCPK:BVNKF), Emergent BioSolutions (EBS), Co-Diagnostics (CODX) and Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP), as well as Virax Biolabs (VRAX), GeoVax (GOVX), and Applied DNA Sciences (APDN). (215 comments)
     
Trending
Harley-Davidson (HOG) was the latest corporation to back away from DEI initiatives following a backlash kickstarted by political commentator Robby Starbuck. It followed similar campaigns against Deere (DE) and Tractor Supply (TSCO), which both shelved their DEI protocols earlier in the summer. "We did it again. 3 for 3," Starbuck said on X. "People are sick of the lunacy in their workplace. They just want to go to work and have it be work again. I'm not asking you to become a conservative company. I'm asking you for it to be neutral and to make it a welcoming place for everybody." (248 comments)
     
Economy
A huge revision made to U.S. job growth numbers saw 818,000 jobs wiped out in the 12 months through March 2024, marking the biggest downward adjustment since the global financial crisis. Data revisions are common, but usually not to that degree, even with the large standard deviation typically assigned to non-farm payroll figures. Trends still appear to be positive, but things might look different going forward given rising unemployment, thereby cementing a rate cut in September. The dovishness even got markets excited on Wednesday, especially after FOMC minutes showed such an action was likely. (341 comments)
     
Commodities
A bar of gold became worth $1M for the first time ever, with the shiny metal topping $2,500/oz and gold bars in the London market typically weighing about 400 oz. Gold futures have also been on the rise, driven by a weakening dollar and growing speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Central bank purchases supported gold's rally, with net purchases totaling 483.3 tons in the first half of the year (equivalent to nearly 40K gold bars), but some analysts expect consolidation ahead, with the odds of further easing already baked in unless the Fed signals deeper rate cuts. (18 comments)
     
Automotive
Ford (F) overhauled its electric vehicle strategy, which included dropping a plan for a new electric SUV, pivoting toward hybrid versions, trimming capex on pure EVs, and ramping up U.S. battery production. The Detroit automaker's EV business has continued to bleed money, with prior forecasts that it would lose up to $5.5B in 2024. In related news, Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) autonomous vehicle unit Waymo surpassed 100,000 trips per week, doubling the volume reported in May, while Uber (UBER) inked a multiyear partnership to bring GM's (GM) Cruise robotaxis to the ride-sharing company's platform. (59 comments)
     
Weekly Movement

U.S. Indices
Dow +1.3% to 41,175. S&P 500 +1.5% to 5,635. Nasdaq +1.4% to 17,878. Russell 2000 +3.5% to 2,218. CBOE Volatility Index +7.2% to 15.86.

S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples +1.6%. Utilities +1.2%. Financials +1.5%. Telecom +1.2%. Healthcare +1.7%. Industrials +1.8%. Information Technology +1.1%. Materials +2.3%. Energy -0.5%. Consumer Discretionary +2.1%. Real Estate +3.6%.

World Indices
London +0.2% to 8,328. France +1.7% to 7,577. Germany +1.7% to 18,633. Japan +0.9% to 38,420. China -0.9% to 2,854. Hong Kong +1.0% to 17,612. India +0.8% to 81,086.

Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI -2.2% to $74.96/bbl. Gold +0.4% to $2,548.7/oz. Natural Gas -4.4% to 2.029. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 3.795.

Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD +1.5%. USD/JPY -2.16%. GBP/USD +2.09%. Bitcoin +7.5%. Litecoin -2.4%. Ethereum +5.5%. XRP +7.4%.

Top S&P 500 Gainers
Starbucks (SBUX) +26%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) +24%. NVIDIA (NVDA) +19%. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) +17%. Micron Technology (MU) +16%.

Top S&P 500 Losers
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) -6%. The Hershey Company (HSY) -4%. Charter Communications (CHTR) -3%. Albemarle (ALB) -3%. Baxter International (BAX) -3%.

Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section.

Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.
 
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