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Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: BRICS+

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Turkey has put in an application to join the BRICS group of emerging market nations, according to Bloomberg, ahead of the bloc's next summit due to take place in Russia on Oct. 22-24. It follows the recent expansion that added four new members to the BRICS (Iran, the UAE, Ethiopia and Egypt) at the beginning of 2024. Along with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the steps are part of finding new trade and financial relationships to rival the G7, Trans-Atlantic, Industrialized World and the Global North, or whatever the latest monikers are for including the broader West.

Background: With America and its allies launching an economic war on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, the appeal of challenging what many of the BRICS call "U.S. hegemony" has intensified. Alternatives have surfaced to circumvent the SWIFT payment system and towards a path of de-dollarization, as well as boosting the New Development Bank to counter Western-dominated institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. In May, the G7 went further by announcing its intention to use profits from frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine, while Moscow has already effectively seized many Western corporations and said it could take further action.

"Turkey can become a strong, prosperous, prestigious and effective country if it improves its relations with the East and West simultaneously," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced over the weekend. "We do not have to choose between the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as some people claim. On the contrary, we have to develop our relations with both these and other organizations on a win-win basis."

What to watch: Turkey has been upset over its paused bid to join the EU, which has been stalled since 2016 due to needed economic and political reforms. Ankara can still take advantage of its customs union with the EU, but the country is now looking to diversify international partnerships by forging alliances beyond its Western partners. Should Turkey join the BRICS, it would be the first NATO ally to join the bloc. It's part of a dual strategy that Turkey hopes will give it outsized influence, unless its quest for extra leverage backfires and it is forced to take a side. (7 comments)

     
Automotive
As competition among automakers intensifies, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) is weighing shuttering plants in Germany for the first time and ending its job security program that has been in place since 1994. "The situation is extremely tense and cannot be overcome by simple cost-cutting measures," warned brand CEO Thomas Schaefer, while group head Oliver Blume outlined the company needs comprehensive restructuring. Management is slated to speak to staff at a works council meeting on Wednesday, where employees are expected to strongly oppose the proposed steps. (71 comments)
     
M&A

U.S. Steel (X) should remain domestically owned, Vice President Kamala Harris declared during a stop in Pittsburgh on Monday, echoing the opinion of President Biden. It's a notable stance as her running mate, Tim Walz, told a Nippon official in June that he supported the deal, but this was before he joined the Democratic presidential ticket. "I will always have the back of America's steelworkers," Harris exclaimed, in what could be a hurdle for Nippon Steel's (OTCPK:NISTF) planned $14B deal. Donald Trump also plans on blocking the transaction if elected. (219 comments)

     
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Regulation
Brazil's telecom regulator has reportedly threatened to sanction Elon Musk's Starlink, which could include canceling its license to operate in the country. That's because Starlink, the satellite broadband unit of SpaceX (SPACE), refused to comply with a court order to block access to X in Brazil after a months-long feud over the social media platform. Brazil President Lula da Silva said the order signaled that "the world is not obliged to put up with Musk's far-right ideology," while hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman outlined the ruling would make the country uninvestable. (30 comments)
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.2%. China -0.3%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.5%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude -1.6% to $72.35. Gold +0.1% to $2,529.30. Bitcoin +1.1% to $59,158.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 3.91%.
Today's Economic Calendar
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China warns of retaliation if Japan imposes new chip restrictions

Electric vehicle adoption: A disappointment or still on track?

Boeing's (BA) new CEO met with FAA head, discussed safety.

Airbus problems? Cathay Pacific cancels flights over engine issues.

Germany: AfD success piles new pressure on Scholz government.
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