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Monday, September 16, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: Flight To Safety

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Central Banking
We're just over 48 hours away from the Fed lowering rates for the first time since 2020. There's been a lot of debate on how the central bank will embark on its new easing cycle, with investors strongly divided over the starting pace. By how much will FOMC cut on Wednesday?

· 25 bps (cautious Fed = cautious stance)
· 50 bps (already too high for too long)

Take the survey here and don't forget to share your thoughts in the WSB comments section.
     
Top News
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It's the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump in two months. The incident occurred on Sunday at his golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, where a man who was wielding an AK-47-style assault rifle hid in shrubbery along the perimeter. Several Secret Service agents fired on the gunman after he was spotted only a few hundred yards from where Trump was playing, prompting him to flee in a vehicle. He was later arrested 40 miles north of the golf course after license plate readers flagged his car on the I-95.

Mugshot: The media identified the suspect as Ryan Routh, 58, of Hawaii. In July, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks tried to assassinate Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, grazing his right ear with a bullet before he was killed by a Secret Service sniper. "Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER!" Trump wrote after the latest incident, while rival Kamala Harris said she was "glad he was safe" and "violence has no place in America."

These two episodes highlight the difficulties and tensions surrounding the 2024 election season. Things are very hot amid charged polarized campaigns, and big developments seem to be coming every other week, like President Biden's withdrawal from the race. To note, there have been similar assassination occurrences in recent U.S. history, like the two attempts made on President Ford in 1975, which took place within 17 days of each other.

Market movement: Trump Media & Technology (DJT), which is known for its meme qualities and can follow Trump-related developments, rose 6% in early trading on Monday, though the gains are starting to fizzle before the market opens. The stock has fallen heavily since March on fears that the end of a lockup period could result in Trump selling a large chunk of his shares, but the former president pledged he wouldn't do that on Friday, leading to somewhat of a rebound. For investors looking to play the elections through other market instruments, check out these politically driven GOP and Democratic funds.

     
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Aviation

The strike at Boeing (BA) could "go on for a while," machinist union leader Jon Holden told NPR, saying workers have "the most leverage at the most opportune time that we've ever had in our history." As many as 33,000 employees went on strike on Friday after rejecting a new labor contract, with the work stoppage expected to cost Boeing billions of dollars. "Historically, IAM 751 strikes have lasted 60 days on average," Bank of America noted, adding that the planemaker will likely move closer to the union's 40% wage hike demand. (2 comments)

     
Automotive
Uber (UBER) and Waymo, the self-driving car company owned by Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), are expanding their existing partnership to bring autonomous ride-hailing to Austin, Texas and Atlanta. Paid ride offerings will be available in those locations starting in 2025. Uber and Lyft (LYFT) have ramped up deals with autonomous vehicle makers amid an increased adoption of the technology. Uber also inked a multiyear partnership recently to bring General Motors' (GM) Cruise autonomous vehicles to its platform. (43 comments)
     
Tech
Larry Ellison, Oracle's (ORCL) co-founder and technology chief, briefly overtook Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos as the world's second-richest person, after the software giant's shares saw their best week since late 2021. Oracle gained 14.3% last week after its earnings topped expectations and its long-term targets impressed investors. The rally briefly lifted the net worth of Ellison, Oracle's biggest shareholder, to $208.4B on Friday, but it has since come down to $197.7B. Bezos' net worth currently stands at $204.4B, while Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is No. 1 with a net worth of $252.8B. Take the WSB survey.
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +0.3%. China closed. India +0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.2%. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +0.5% to $68.99. Gold -0.2% to $2,604.40. Bitcoin -2.2% to $58,713.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bp to 3.65%.
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
Wall Street is alarmed about weaker consumer credit trends.

$150B OpenAI valuation requires change in corporate structure.

Gulf of Mexico drillers slowly resume activity in wake of storm.

Intel (INTC) is said to qualify for $3.5B in military chip grants.

Do queasy side effects mean the end of weight-loss drug hype?

Spacewalk win: Rocket Lab (RKLB) top weekly industrial gainer.

23andMe (ME) agrees to pay $30M to settle data breach lawsuit.

Cruise industry coasts into end of summer on another high note.

Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) exploring sale to handle planned spinoff.

Will U.S. gasoline prices drop below $3/gallon before the election?
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.
 
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