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Friday, September 13, 2024

Wall Street Breakfast: Time To Strike

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The latest challenge has surfaced for American planemaker Boeing (BA), whose biggest labor union just voted overwhelmingly to walk off the assembly line. A strike that started at midnight Pacific time will shut down production of its best-selling jets, including the 737, 777 and 767. An extended stoppage would weigh on the financials of Boeing and make things worse for the jetliner industry, which is already struggling with capacity shortages.

What happened? Tens of thousands of machinists (95%) rejected a labor deal struck between union leaders and Boeing executives. The contract offered a 25% wage increase over four years, as well as pledges for local manufacturing, more retirement benefits and lower healthcare costs, but employees felt that would not be enough after a decade of stagnating pay and the current cost of living. Prior to the vote, Boeing maintained that it offered as much as it could given to its finances, with a soaring debt load that has topped $60B.

It's the first big test for Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the yoke last month to steer the company towards better brighter skies. The planemaker's reputation has suffered in recent years amid questions over safety and lack of accountability. Two crashes in 2018/19 uncovered design flaws with the MCAS system, a 737 MAX door plug blew out mid-flight in January, and more recently, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft couldn't make it back to Earth with its crew on board.

A striking success: Unions and walkouts have notched strong results over the past year, as new leadership and members spot the opportunity for leverage. That has led to new labor agreements for the auto industry, for Hollywood, and even others in the aerospace sector, like the machinists at Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), which was later bought by Boeing. Will the surge in industrial action impact even more industries? (30 comments)
     
Economy
The U.S. federal government spent $380B more than it earned in August, according to the Treasury Department. It also spent more than $1T on interest payments so far this fiscal year - for the first time ever - as the government's fiscal YTD budget deficit swelled to $1.9T, up 24% from the same period a year ago. The Fed's aggressive tightening cycle, which pushed rates to their highest levels in over two decades, has been a big driver in the increase in interest payments, but the central bank is set to start its easing cycle next week. (26 comments)
     
Defense
Vladimir Putin has announced that the West would be directly at war with Russia if Ukraine is allowed to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long called on NATO allies to allow Kyiv to use such missiles - like the ATACMS made by Lockheed Martin (LMT). "If this decision is made, it will mean nothing less than the direct participation of NATO countries, the U.S. and European countries in the war in Ukraine," Putin declared. "If this is so, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us." (57 comments)
     
Global
Despite public opposition and concerns about youth unemployment, China will gradually raise the statutory retirement age by up to five years for the first time since 1978. The decision, which will come into force on January 1, 2025, takes into account increased life expectancy in China, a shrinking overall workforce and more years of education. Notably, people aged 60 and above are expected to cross 400M by 2035, representing 30% of China's total population, which has been declining amid low birth rates. (5 comments)
     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.7%. Hong Kong +0.8%. China -0.5%. India -0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +1% to $69.64. Gold +0.5% to $2,594.10. Bitcoin +0.7% to $58,309.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 3.66%.
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
Ahead of the Fed: ECB cuts interest rates for second time this year.

Oracle (ORCL) climbs after hiking long-term targets at analyst meeting.

New push towards Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac privatization?

Wells Fargo (WFC) slides after OCC issues enforcement action.

Grayscale launches XRP closed-end fund, sending XRP higher.

Amazon (AMZN) boosts investment in delivery service program.

American Airlines (AAL) flight attendants approve new five-year contract.

Adobe (ADBE) plunges after earnings beat as guidance disappoints.

Microsoft (MSFT) ropes in GE (GE) finance chief Happe for COO job.

Little damage seen despite 40% of Gulf oil output shut-in by Francine.
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.
 
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