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Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
Berkshire Bought the Dip—Now Constellation Brands Is Rebounding
Author: Leo Miller. First Published: 1/9/2026.
Article Highlights
- Constellation Brands is rebounding sharply in early 2026 after a 36% loss last year, with its Q3 earnings beating expectations.
- Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in STZ despite the stock’s downturn, signaling long-term confidence in its recovery potential.
- Strong beer segment performance, improving margins, and analyst price targets point to upside, even as broader alcohol demand remains uncertain.
After a disastrous 2025, shares of beer giant Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) are starting 2026 on a brighter note. To the chagrin of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), Constellation delivered a total return of -36% in 2025. Prior to Warren Buffett's retirement, Berkshire initiated a position in Constellation in Q4 2024. As of September 2025, Berkshire held 13.4 million Constellation shares, valued at roughly $1.8 billion at the time.
Weakness across the beer market and among Constellation's customers contributed to the stock's decline. Constellation lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 (FY2026) guidance in September 2025 because of the challenging backdrop. Note that the company's fiscal year runs several quarters ahead of the calendar year.
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Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >>As of the Jan. 8 close, Constellation shares are up more than 7% in 2026 and have rebounded roughly 16% since hitting a 2025 low near $128 in November. The stock also jumped 5.3% after the firm's latest earnings release. Below is a look at that report and what it implies for the stock.
Constellation Delivers Impressive Bottom-Line Beat
In Q3 FY2026, Constellation reported net revenue of $2.22 billion, a 10% decline but about $52 million ahead of analysts' estimates. The consumer staples company posted comparable earnings per share of $3.06, down roughly 6% year over year but well above the consensus call of $2.63 (which implied a 19% decline).
Constellation's beer segment, which accounts for about 90% of revenue, saw sales fall 1%. That modest decline was nonetheless better than the broader beer industry, allowing Constellation to gain market share. Amid a weak backdrop, the beer business has consistently outperformed: in Q1 and Q2 FY2026, Constellation led the beer category in dollar share gains, a trend that also held through FY2025. Even with lower sales, the beer segment's operating margin rose 10 basis points, reflecting effective cost management.
Dragging overall growth was the Wine & Spirits segment, where reported sales fell 51% — largely because Constellation sold SVEDKA vodka and a portion of its wine portfolio. Excluding those divestitures, sales in the segment declined about 7%. Applying those exclusions company-wide, organic sales contraction was closer to 2% rather than the reported 10% decline. On an adjusted basis, the quarter was stronger than the headline numbers suggest.
Coming Off Multi-Year Lows, STZ May Have Significant Upside
Trading around $148, Constellation has only partially recovered from its 2025 low near $128. That November low was not only the stock's weakest close last year but the lowest level since April 2020, shortly after the March COVID-19 market crash.
Put another way, Constellation is rebounding from a multi-year drawdown rather than a brief sell-off, which leaves meaningful potential for further recovery if momentum continues.
Berkshire Buying and Price Targets Support the Bull Case
Berkshire purchased more than 6 million Constellation shares in Q1 2025, when the stock's lowest closing price that quarter was $158. That price is roughly 7% above the stock's current level, implying Berkshire bought at higher levels than today's price.
Since that initial purchase, Berkshire has expanded its stake, signaling continued confidence despite the stock's decline. That buying behavior suggests Berkshire still sees upside for Constellation.
Wall Street analysts also see upside: the MarketBeat consensus price target is about $182, implying roughly 23% upside from current levels.
Still, the beer industry faces questions. A recent Gallup survey found just 54% of Americans reported drinking alcohol, the lowest reading on record. However, similar dips have occurred previously and were followed by recoveries, which suggests alcohol consumption trends may be cyclical rather than permanently structural. A rebound in consumption would be a meaningful tailwind for Constellation.
Given its track record of gaining beer market share, the improving margins in its core business and an attractive relative valuation, Constellation's outlook leans toward the upside.
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