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The Last Time Qualcomm's RSI Did This, the Stock Rallied 70%
Reported by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 1/27/2026.
In Brief
- Qualcomm has just exited extremely oversold territory, a technical setup that previously marked the start of a major recovery rally.
- The signal is appearing just ahead of earnings, when expectations are about as low as they can be.
- With much of the downside already priced in, the risk-reward balance is tilting toward the bulls.
Shares of tech giant Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are trading around $155 after a difficult two weeks. After a reasonable start to the year, the stock has fallen roughly 15% over the past fortnight. Selling pressure has been relentless as concerns mounted that Qualcomm may have missed the early phases of the AI wave, particularly in major enterprise use cases.
That pessimism is visible on the stock's chart. Last week, Qualcomm's relative strength index (RSI) dipped below 30, entering oversold territory. Its rapid bounce back above that 30 level makes the setup especially interesting — not only because it suggests selling pressure may have eased and buyers are returning, but because of what the stock did the last time this happened.
Why Qualcomm's RSI Signal Matters Right Now
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The biggest tech investors have unloaded their top AI investments. Peter Thiel's fund dumped its entire $100 million Nvidia stake. SoftBank unloaded its entire $5.8 billion position. Perhaps the biggest signal is Berkshire Hathaway sitting on $382 billion in cash, more than Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple combined. Was this Warren Buffett's parting gift before stepping down? Four unstoppable market forces could upend the economy in the coming weeks. Any one could be devastating alone, but four at the same time would wreak havoc. The last time this played out was over 50 years ago, leading to a lost decade for stocks.
Watch the interview revealing these four market forces.RSI is a popular technical indicator that provides a quick snapshot of recent momentum and a simple gauge of whether a stock is overbought or oversold. Equally important to how far the RSI falls is how quickly it recovers, since that speed says a lot about how the market is interpreting the situation.
The last time Qualcomm's RSI fell below 30 was in April of last year, and within a week it was already out of the danger zone. That's the setup we're seeing now, and investors should consider that context when thinking about where the stock could go next.
History Rhymes: Qualcomm's RSI Bounce Previously Fueled a Rally
That quick bounce out of deeply oversold levels in April preceded the start of what turned into a roughly 70% rally in Qualcomm shares. It marked a clear inflection point where bearish momentum gave way to sustained accumulation, and we could be seeing a similar dynamic now.
Once again the stock was heavily sold as sentiment turned negative, but the fact that RSI has already risen back above 30 suggests the market has absorbed much of the selling. This reversal is unfolding just days ahead of earnings, which makes the setup more appealing to investors who believe the sell-off was overdone.
Even After the Downgrade, Qualcomm Still Shows Upside to $175
Much of Qualcomm's underperformance relative to its peers, both last year and in recent weeks, stems from concerns that it has been left behind in the AI arms race. While names like NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) have dominated headlines, Qualcomm's progress has been quieter and more fragmented.
That view, however, may be too narrow. Qualcomm has been making steady advances in personal AI across IoT, edge computing and robotics. Those markets are less flashy than large-scale cloud AI, but they are meaningful, scalable and well aligned with Qualcomm's core strengths. In that context, the recent sell-off may be discounting those opportunities too aggressively.
A recent Mizuho downgrade to Neutral hasn't helped. Still, with Qualcomm trading around $155, its revised price target of $175 still implies notable upside.
Earnings Could Be the Catalyst That Turns Qualcomm Higher
From a technical perspective, Qualcomm has shown early signs of stabilization. The stock recently bounced off support around $154, a level that marked where bears ran out of steam in October.
Taken together, there's a sense that the pieces are starting to line up. Qualcomm heads into earnings with sentiment at rock bottom and a technical signal that has historically preceded sizable recoveries. History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes, and Qualcomm's downside appears more limited now than it was two weeks ago.
If the company can reassure investors that its longer-term growth story remains intact next week, the post-earnings reaction could skew higher. After a punishing start to the year, this is the kind of setup where confidence, rather than panic, may prove the smarter play.
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