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Waiting for Walmart to Pull Back? Now's the Time to Buy
Written by Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 2/19/2026.
Key Points
- Walmart is creating a buying opportunity for investors following weaker-than-expected F2027 guidance.
- The uptrend remains intact, with analysts suggesting a 10% upside from the early 2026 highs.
- Cash flow, capital return, and institutional support underpin the price action.
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Investors waiting for Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) shares to pull back into an attractive entry point have seen that move begin. The stock peaked ahead of the Q4 2026 earnings report and has since started to decline. The technical picture is clear: Walmart remains in a longer-term uptrend but could pull back into the $120 to $110 range before finding a bottom and rebounding. If that happens, long-term upside could be in the low-double-digit CAGR range, including dividends and share-price appreciation, over the coming years.
Walmart's stock price action is driven as much by cash flow as by company growth. That cash flow supports a healthy balance sheet and ample, reliable capital returns and reinvestment. The dividend yield was about 0.8% as of mid-February 2026 — below the market average but very reliable, with a payout ratio near 35% of expected earnings and a 52-year streak of consecutive increases. Share buybacks are steady, reducing share count each quarter, and the board recently authorized a new $30 billion repurchase program, roughly 3% of the pre-release market cap.
Analysts Caution Doesn't Mean Sell Walmart: Buying Opportunity Exposed
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Analysts expressed some caution after Walmart's Q4 release; however, they remain optimistic and continue to support the stock outlook. MarketBeat tracks 35 analyst reports published within the past 12 months, showing increased coverage, firmer sentiment, and a 94% Buy-side bias. The consensus price target has risen by about 30% on a trailing 12-month basis and was trending higher into the earnings release.
Recent updates include an upgrade to Strong Buy from Argus and several target increases or reiterations, lifting the top of the range to $150. A move to $150 would be notable because it would sit roughly 10% above the stock's all-time high.
The technical setup remains constructive. Although price action peaked before the report, the stock appears to be trading inside a broader uptrend that is still intact.
The indicators support that view: MACD shows convergence with the recent high and records its strongest peak on history, suggesting market strength that could at least retest current highs following the present pullback — and possibly move to new highs.
MarketBeat data shows institutions own roughly 25% of Walmart, while the Walton family controls an estimated 50% or more — together they effectively control nearly 80% of the shares.
Institutional activity has been net positive. Over the trailing 12 months institutions bought at a rate of more than $2 for every $1 sold, and their buying accelerated in early Q1 2026. In January and early February that balance approached $2.50 bought for every $1 sold, a robust tailwind that coincided with Walmart shares reaching record highs. That pattern suggests a solid institutional support base that could step in to buy near or just below the $120 support area.
Walmart Guidance: Caution in the Face of Bullish Trends
Walmart's guidance is conservative. The company guided Q1 and full-year 2027 revenue and earnings below consensus, while still expecting growth, margin strength, and healthy cash flow. Given Q4 outperformance and strength across key consumer channels, the guidance appears intentionally cautious.
eCommerce was a standout, up 24% systemwide, aided by same-day pickup and delivery services. The advertising business grew 37% globally and 41% in the U.S. Core retail results were solid: Walmart U.S. comps rose 4.6% driven by ticket and traffic, Sam's Club comps grew 4% alongside a 6.9% membership-fee increase, and International comps were up 7.5%.
Margin performance was also favorable: gross margins expanded slightly and expense controls helped drive results. The company reported a 10.5% increase in currency-neutral operating income (10.8% reported), a 12.1% rise in adjusted earnings, and 18% growth in free cash flow. Looking ahead, Walmart forecasts revenue growth of about 4.5%, a modest slowdown from this year. The outlook may be conservative — for example, this year's tax refunds have been reported as roughly 10% larger on average than last year's.
3 Overlooked Dividend Stocks for Choppy Markets in 2026
Written by Nathan Reiff. Originally Published: 2/18/2026.
Key Points
- Three lesser-known dividend players—Hancock Whitney, NewMarket, and Horace Mann Educators—all have dividend yields of at least 2%.
- These smaller companies could provide growth opportunities that larger dividend names may not, in addition to offering the benefit of passive income.
- Each has recently seen notable earnings performance, including a combination of top- and/or bottom-line growth, shareholder value boosts thanks to share buybacks, and more.
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Choppiness in the S&P 500 has produced alternating up and down periods, unlike the clearer positive trend seen through much of late 2025. If investors worry about a market correction—for example, an AI bubble popping—they may shift toward safer defensive plays, including dividend stocks.
Within dividend plays there is wide variety. Many immediately think of long-time favorites—global brands or otherwise very stable companies favored by investors such as Warren Buffett. A lesser-known group of dividend names includes firms off the beaten path that may offer more growth potential than the stalwarts. Three relatively obscure companies still paying healthy dividends are Hancock Whitney Corp. (NASDAQ: HWC), NewMarket Corp. (NYSE: NEU), and Horace Mann Educators Corp. (NYSE: HMN).
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Hancock Whitney is a bank holding company best known in the Gulf South region.
The company provides commercial and retail banking as well as wealth-management services through Hancock Whitney Bank branches.
The firm pays an attractive dividend yield of 2.53% and has a sustainable payout ratio of 31.7%. The company's latest earnings report for Q4 2025 was mixed: EPS beat analyst estimates by $0.01, while revenue fell short of expectations.
Still, several factors make Hancock Whitney compelling in early 2026. The company recently completed a bond-portfolio restructuring that should add roughly 7 basis points to net interest margin (NIM) and about $0.23 to annual EPS.
Loan growth is improving, and a favorable capital position funded share buybacks equal to roughly 3% of outstanding shares in the fourth quarter alone. That capital also cushions the dividend, making Hancock Whitney a relatively stable dividend play for risk-conscious investors.
Even With Market Softness, NewMarket Remains an Attractive Dividend Play
NewMarket, a chemicals company specializing in lubricants and petroleum additives, has seen its shares fall about 14% year-to-date (YTD) following the company's latest earnings report.
One key driver was a decline in net income and EPS in 2025 due to a higher effective tax rate. Fourth-quarter petroleum-additives shipments were down about 6% year-over-year (YOY) amid a softer market.
On the other hand, NewMarket's specialty materials business has performed well recently, helped by the firm's October acquisition of aerospace propellant company Calca.
Specialty materials should remain a major part of NewMarket's strategy in 2026, with the company committing $1 billion to expand this segment.
Despite a Hold rating from Wall Street, NewMarket remains a solid dividend play. The firm has kept up cash generation, returning $183 million to shareholders last quarter through a combination of share buybacks and dividends.
NewMarket carries a dividend yield of 2.01%, a payout ratio just above 27%, and a multi-year history of dividend increases.
Wins Across Multiple Categories Strengthen Horace Mann's Dividend Profile
Horace Mann Educators is a retirement-services and property-and-casualty insurance company that tailors products to school employees across the United States.
The company has posted multiple strong quarters, including its latest, which beat EPS by $0.03 and helped deliver record full-year EPS of $4.71. 2026 EPS forecasts align with the company's 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) target.
Horace Mann's gains stem in part from its property-and-casualty business, which saw meaningful improvements in both its combined ratio and core earnings; the latter more than doubled last year.
Both individual supplemental products and group sales are growing rapidly, helping Horace Mann further diversify its revenue base.
An early-retirement program has generated about $10 million in annualized savings, putting Horace Mann on track to achieve a targeted expense-ratio reduction of 100 to 150 basis points over the next three years.
That should free up cash for additional share buybacks on top of $21 million repurchased in 2025 and support the company's dividend, which currently has a yield of 3.25% and a payout ratio of 35.9%.
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