Dear Reader,
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To Your Profits,
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Chief Investment Strategist, Money & Markets
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Q4 Earnings Suprise Could Offer Trex Stock a Path to Recovery
Authored by Chris Markoch. First Published: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Trex delivered a double earnings beat, showing resilience even as housing data remains mixed.
- New product launches, including ignition-resistant decking, are expanding the company’s addressable market.
- Future stock performance depends heavily on consumer-driven repair-and-remodel demand in 2026.
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Earnings season frequently delivers surprises, sometimes even on the same day. Trex Company Inc. (NYSE: TREX) reported strong results after the market closed, highlighting solid demand for the company's wood-alternative decking and railing systems in its latest earnings release.
Outgoing chief executive officer Bryan Fairbanks noted, "New products accounted for 24% of our full-year 2025 sales and, as anticipated, railing sales increased at a significant double-digit rate for the year. The success of our new product launches is a strong indication of how well-aligned our product design and development programs are with consumer preferences."
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This was an intriguing counterpoint to the morning report from Home Depot (NYSE: HD), which delivered mixed results and guidance that suggested the housing recovery remains weak.
Trex, like many construction stocks, benefits from a strong housing market. But the company doesn't rely on new-home construction for growth — it depends on existing homeowners prioritizing outdoor living projects and having discretionary cash, such as tax refunds. With that dynamic in mind, management's commentary offers an important perspective for investors.
Earnings Beat Expectations Despite Seasonal Weakness
Trex's earnings can be read as either better-than-feared or an early sign of recovery. Revenue of $161.13 million exceeded estimates of $144.39 million by roughly 11.5%. The bottom line was stronger still: analysts had forecast a loss of $0.01 per share, but Trex reported positive EPS of $0.04.
The double beat is notable because Q4 is historically Trex's weakest quarter — primarily because the company is seasonally affected by weather, and several of its markets are less active during this period.
Both revenue and EPS were down year-over-year, and that trend has appeared in multiple quarters over the last year, so it shouldn't be dismissed as a one-off.
That said, Trex said Q4 and full-year profitability were affected by several one-time items: costs related to expanding its railing portfolio, start-up and related costs for a new plastic processing plant, and digital-transformation investments. Management expects these initiatives to begin delivering returns in 2026.
Innovation Remains Central to the Growth Story
A key takeaway from Trex's report is the company's continued focus on product innovation. The early-January launch of Trex® Refuge™ Decking exemplifies this strategy. The ignition-resistant PVC decking is designed for western U.S. regions facing stricter fire-safety requirements.
Management called this the first of several new products planned over the next 12 months, indicating an active and targeted innovation pipeline.
Coupled with meaningful gains in home-center stocking locations ahead of the 2026 deck-building season, Trex appears positioned to capture demand even in a flat repair-and-remodel environment. Management's 2026 guidance — $1.185 billion to $1.230 billion in revenue and $315 million to $340 million in adjusted EBITDA — reflects cautious but credible optimism.
Investors Are Voting Up a Change in the C-Suite
As part of the earnings release, Trex announced that president and CEO Bryan Fairbanks will retire effective April 28. Fairbanks, who has been with the company for 23 years, will be succeeded by Adam D. Zambanni, the company's current executive vice president and chief operating officer.
Leadership changes can make investors uneasy, but the market's reaction since the report suggests confidence in the transition.
The Consumer Holds the Key to This Growth Story
TREX stock trades about 12% below its consensus price target of approximately $47 at the time of writing. Since the report, several analysts have raised targets, including Loop Capital, which upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
Institutional ownership of TREX stock is around 95% and has tilted slightly bullish over the last 12 months — likely a reaction to the softening year-over-year revenue and earnings trends.
From a technical perspective, TREX is trading at levels not seen since March 2020, though technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) do not signal that the stock is oversold.
For the stock to appreciate meaningfully, demand for Trex's products needs to grow — and current analyst forecasts remain conservative toward 2026.
A bullish shift in consumer confidence and behavior could change that outlook. The catalysts are straightforward: if consumers receive larger tax refunds, if interest rates decline, and if homeowners decide to invest more in outdoor living spaces, Trex could see a much stronger second half of the year.
AI Is Separating Software Winners From Losers, 2 Experts Explain
Authored by Bridget Bennett. First Published: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- The software sell-off looks less like an industry collapse and more like a market-driven separation between AI beneficiaries and AI-disrupted businesses.
- Altimetry’s Uniform Accounting work argues select leaders have been repriced for pessimistic growth assumptions despite durable moats and strong fundamentals.
- Some beaten-down SaaS names may still be risky because switching costs, data advantages, and product breadth matter more than “down big” charts.
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The software correction has been relentless. Charts continue trending lower, and investor confidence has started to crack. Asked whether this is a falling knife or a rare buying window, Rob Spivey and Professor Joel Litman of Altimetry Research framed the moment not as a collapse, but as a separation.
Litman drew an immediate parallel to last year's semiconductor scare following China's DeepSeek headlines. At the time, fear dominated the narrative. Today, semiconductor leaders sit at new highs.
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"This is very similar," Litman explained. "We are in an AI productivity boom… it is still a bull market."
The key difference now is that investors must distinguish between software companies positioned to benefit from AI and those vulnerable to disruption.
The Market Is Pricing Panic—Not Fundamentals
Spivey outlined how Altimetry approached the sell-off: they evaluated 126 software companies using Uniform Accounting and ranked them on AI durability, switching costs, system-of-record status, and integration strength.
The result, according to Spivey, is a stark divide.
"It's really a separation of the wheat from the chaff," Litman noted.
While some SaaS firms face legitimate risk, others are being repriced as if their businesses are collapsing—despite strong fundamentals and durable competitive moats.
Litman emphasized that historical corrections within bull markets often recover quickly. "You're talking quarters, not years, for this kind of recovery," he said.
With that backdrop, Spivey highlighted three software names he believes investors should be leaning into—not away from.
Microsoft: At the Center of AI, Not at Risk From It
First up: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
Spivey was unequivocal. Microsoft isn't threatened by AI—it is powering it. Between Azure infrastructure, enterprise integration, authentication layers, and ecosystem depth, switching costs are extraordinarily high.
Despite that dominance, Microsoft shares have fallen roughly 20% in recent months. Under Uniform Accounting, Spivey argues the valuation disconnect is glaring.
"This is only a 20-times uniform P/E company right now," Spivey said. (P/E is short for price-to-earnings ratio.)
Altimetry's analysis suggests the market is pricing Microsoft for just 6% annual earnings growth, while the firm believes 14% growth is achievable. With Azure demand constrained more by data center capacity than by weakening demand, Spivey suggested sentiment—not fundamentals—is weighing on the stock.
AppLovin: Narrative Fear vs. Marketplace Reality
The second name: AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP), the mobile app advertising marketplace.
Recent fears around "vibe-coded" AI ad platforms sparked sharp selling, pushing shares down more than 30%. But Spivey argues those fears overlook the company's real moat—data.
AppLovin operates the marketplace used by major tech platforms to place ads in mobile apps. Its proprietary dataset, combined with integrated AI optimization, creates a feedback loop that is difficult to replicate. According to Spivey, the market is paying roughly 22 times earnings for a business expected to grow earnings north of 60% annually over the next few years; yet current pricing implies just 20% growth.
For Spivey, this disconnect reflects narrative panic, not competitive deterioration.
Intuit: Security, Ecosystem, and Switching Costs
The third opportunity: Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU).
Shares have fallen roughly 40% amid fears that AI tools could replace TurboTax and QuickBooks. Spivey pushed back on that premise, arguing security, integrations, and ecosystem depth provide durable protection. Are consumers truly going to upload sensitive tax documents and financial histories to experimental AI tools? Spivey is skeptical. Beyond security, Intuit's ecosystem—from payments to budgeting tools—creates meaningful friction for users considering switching.
Uniform Accounting tells a different profitability story. While GAAP numbers show modest returns, Altimetry's adjustments reveal a business generating returns roughly five times corporate averages.
At approximately 16 times Uniform earnings and priced for minimal growth, Spivey sees asymmetric upside potential.
The Software Names to Avoid
If some stocks are mispriced to the upside, others remain vulnerable—even after large declines.
Litman highlighted HubSpot (NYSE: HUBS) and DocuSign (NASDAQ: DOCU) as two examples.
Both have fallen 35% to 40%. Yet even after Uniform adjustments, Litman says they trade at elevated multiples—roughly 65 to 70 times earnings.
HubSpot's risk lies in its customer profile. Serving primarily small and mid-sized businesses, its clients can switch platforms far more easily than large enterprises with embedded systems of record.
"Without the switching costs, what's the reason that they can't continue to lose against the AI tools that are coming online?" Litman asked.
DocuSign faces a different issue: product concentration. E-signature technology, while useful, lacks proprietary data advantages or meaningful barriers to replication by larger platforms.
In Litman's framework, high multiples combined with limited moats and rising AI competition create unfavorable risk-reward setups.
Separation, Not Collapse
The broader takeaway from Spivey and Litman is not that software is broken—it's that investors must be selective.
The AI productivity cycle remains intact. Uniform Accounting suggests several leaders are being mispriced as casualties rather than beneficiaries. At the same time, not every beaten-down SaaS name deserves a rebound.
For investors navigating the volatility, the message is clear: distinguish between companies at the center of AI infrastructure and those exposed to commoditization.
Corrections can feel indiscriminate in the moment. But as this conversation made clear, the recovery—when it comes—may reward those who focus on fundamentals rather than fear.
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