+ Seth Klarman, Michael Mauboussin, Henry Kravis, Niall Ferguson & More
“In finance, whenever you hear the word ‘democratizing,’ hide your wallet.” |
| |
| — Jim Grant |
|
|
|
|
Research |
|
Michael Cembalest examines whether the increasingly popular “Sell America” thesis is supported by the evidence as the U.S. approaches its 250th anniversary. He argues that many expectations of U.S. decline remain difficult to reconcile with current data. |
|
|
|
Quantica Capital examines whether investors can improve trend following results by dynamically allocating capital across asset classes based on recent performance. They find that performance chasing often reduces the benefits of diversification and can leave investors worse off than maintaining a consistent exposure to trend opportunities. |
|
|
|
Niall Ferguson examines how competition among leading AI firms and between the U.S. and China is creating two simultaneous AI races with limited oversight. Drawing on Cold War history, he argues that unmanaged competition could create unintended risks and make international cooperation increasingly important. |
|
AI’s economic gains raise urgent questions about ownership, inequality and corporate power. Proposals for public stakes, taxation or regulation reflect concern that AI could deepen wealth concentration, weaken labor and shift power from governments to mega-cap firms. For investors, equities remain attractive, but rising fragility and political backlash may increase market volatility. |
|
Michael Mauboussin examines PVGO, a way to estimate how much of a stock’s price reflects future value creation versus current earnings power. PVGO averaged 35% of S&P 500 price from 1961 to 2025, and lower PVGO levels were generally followed by stronger returns. |
|
|
|
|
Bonus Content |
Henry Kravis, co-founder & co-executive chairman of KKR, discusses leadership, entrepreneurship, and the evolution of global private markets (58 minutes). Link |
The stock market is starting to expand again after years of shrinking, and potentially at a scale not seen since the dot-com era. Link |
Owen Lamont: Investors may see a rising earnings (E) as a justification for rising Price (P), which then mechanically feeds into rising E. Link |
CAIA’s US endowment study covers the asset allocation, risk, and risk-adjusted returns for the top 17 endowments. Link |
|
|
AllianceBernstein says the early signs of a new chapter for value stocks are becoming harder to ignore. Link |
 |
Source: FactSet, IBES, MSCI and AB |
|
Bloomberg wrote about the TSMC-fueled AI frenzy in Taiwan. Link |
|
|
Podcasts |
| |
| |
 |
6/19/2026 - 70 minutes |
|
|
|
Baupost Group’s Seth Klarman discusses his value investing career, his approach to risk, and his perspective on IPOs and sectors. |
Apple | Spotify | YouTube |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Meb’s Corner |
| |
| |
 |
6/23/2026 - 26 minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
| |
| |
 |
6/26/2026 - 58 minutes |
|
|
|
Ben Carlson shares the numbers that surprise investors, explaining what they reveal about markets, investor behavior, and long-term investing. |
Apple | Spotify | YouTube |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Copyright © 2026 The Idea Farm, L.P. All Rights Reserved. |
The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data is presented that is prepared by third parties, such information will be cited, and these sources have been deemed to be reliable. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and is not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. |
Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 The Idea Farm 3300 Highland Avenue
Manhattan Beach, California 90266, United States |
| Terms of Service |
|
|
|
|
|
|
