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Delta vs. United: Which Airline Is Better Built for Higher Fuel Costs?
Written by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 7/18/2026.
Key Points
- Delta Air Lines and United Airlines both absorbed sharply higher jet fuel costs this quarter, but Delta's earnings and margins held up better than United's.
- Delta's Monroe Energy refinery and hedging gains provided more structural fuel-cost protection than United's liquidity-based approach of raising cash reserves.
- Both airlines successfully raised ticket prices to offset fuel inflation, with Delta achieving comparable unit-revenue growth while expanding capacity far less than United.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
Airline stocks’ sensitivity to jet fuel prices is tested whenever fuel spikes. In 2026, fuel costs are testing every airline's balance sheet. This quarter, both Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and United Airlines (NYSE: UAL) passed the test on paper. But they passed it in very different ways, and the difference matters more than the headline numbers.
Delta's adjusted fuel price rose to $3.93 a gallon, up 75% year over year. United's was worse at $4.19 a gallon, up nearly 80%. Neither number is small. United took a significant year-over-year hit to adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and now expects almost $6 billion in incremental fuel expense for full-year 2026, up from its original budget.
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Click here to get the name and ticker of this AI stockThose are real data points that investors shouldn’t dismiss as quarterly noise. The question is which airline has the structural tools to keep passing those costs through to ticket prices without losing the traveler.
How Higher Jet Fuel Costs Are Impacting Delta and United
As noted above, United's adjusted EPS fell 48.6% year-over-year, from $3.87 to $1.99. Delta's adjusted EPS fell 26%, from $2.12 to $1.56. The same pattern was evident in margin compression. United's adjusted pre-tax margin fell just over six points, from 11% to 4.8%. Delta fell four points, from 11.7% to 7.7%. Delta's earnings base shrank by a smaller proportion, even though both carriers faced comparable fuel inflation.
To be fair, not all of the weakness in United’s EPS and margin numbers was due to fuel costs. The company absorbed $184 million in one-time labor contract charges this quarter, versus $561 million a year ago.
Delta's Fuel Hedging Strategy Vs. United's Liquidity Approach
At the crux of the "built for higher fuel costs" question is the strategy of fuel hedging. Most U.S. major airlines walked away from large-scale fuel hedging years ago. Unlike European carriers such as Air France-KLM (OTCMKTS: AFLYY) or Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY), which routinely lock in 70%–90% of fuel needs through derivative contracts extending a year or more out, U.S. legacy carriers have largely stopped using the strategy.
Industry reporting has pegged the impact of that exposure, and it explains the problem well. A 1-cent move in jet fuel can cost a major U.S. carrier roughly $50 million a year, with no derivative book absorbing the blow.
Delta is the partial exception because it owns Monroe Energy, a Trainer, Pennsylvania refinery that supplies a meaningful share of its jet fuel needs. Third-party refinery sales hit $2.09 billion this quarter, up 83% year over year, and Delta credits the refinery with an 11-cents-per-gallon benefit this quarter, including a 5-cent hit from a temporary outage.
Delta's earnings report showed $301 million in mark-to-market hedge adjustments and settlements this quarter alone. That's not the 80%+ coverage ratios you see at Ryanair or Air France-KLM, but it's meaningfully more structural protection than a pure spot-market buyer.
United's approach is based on liquidity.
Management raised $3.7 billion in new liquidity through private bank transactions this quarter, explicitly described as "low-cost insurance" against a further oil spike.
Per sources, United has also secured select fuel supply contracts that limit some exposure, but these reportedly fall well short of the large-scale, derivative-based hedging programs that European carriers or Delta's refinery model provide.
Can Delta and United Pass Higher Fuel Costs to Travelers?
Rising jet fuel costs only matter if passengers aren’t willing to pay. So far, that hasn’t been the case. United grew capacity 3.5% year over year while still pushing adjusted unit revenue (TRASM) up 12.1%. Delta grew capacity roughly 1% while pushing TRASM up 12.4%.
Delta is generating comparable unit-revenue growth on a fraction of United's capacity growth—a tighter, lower-risk version of the same pricing story. United is growing into demand more aggressively, which raises the upside if travel stays strong, and the downside if it doesn't.
Why Travel Demand Remains Strong Despite Higher Airfares
Both United and Delta cited increases in premium and economy/main-cabin demand. United's Basic Economy revenue rose 11%, and its overall economy-cabin unit revenue rose 12%. That was the airline’s second consecutive quarter of positive economy growth after a long soft patch. Delta's main cabin ticket revenue rose 8%, also its second straight quarter of positive main-cabin growth, while premium ticket revenue rose 17%.
At first glance, that pattern looks contradictory. The broader travel narrative through 2025 and into 2026 has been a "K-shaped" split: strong premium demand alongside a documented pullback in budget-conscious leisure travel, with ultra-low-cost carriers absorbing the brunt of that softness. If the price-sensitive traveler is genuinely pulling back across the industry, why are Delta and United both showing their cheapest cabins turning positive at the same time?
It may come down to a share shift rather than a demand surge. Neither Delta nor United built its brand around the price-sensitive flyer, but both have spent recent years building lower-tier fare products. United’s Basic Economy and Delta's comparable main-cabin fares are designed to compete for that traveler when needed.
As ultra-low-cost carriers cut capacity or struggle with their own economics, some of that traffic doesn't vanish. It shifts, "below the line," to a legacy carrier's cheapest available seat. That would reconcile positive economy-cabin growth at Delta and United with a well-documented pullback at the dedicated budget carriers.
Which Airline Is Better Positioned for Higher Fuel Costs?
Warren Buffett has been one of the most outspoken critics of airline stocks. Buffett’s argument comes down to high operating costs outweighing travel demand, which can be fickle. But every rule has occasional exceptions. In 2026, the airline industry is having a moment where, for now, math is working in its favor.
That doesn’t mean this time is different. It just means that there’s an opportunity for growth despite higher jet fuel prices. That is, as long as travelers are willing to absorb the higher costs.
If stock price growth is the only consideration, both UAL and DAL are attractive targets. In fact, an argument could be made that United has more short-term upside. But for an investor looking for long-term growth, Delta’s hedging strategy should do a better job of protecting its margins. Plus, DAL's dividend increased about 15% (from $0.1875 to $0.2150 per share) and will be paid on July 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 9.
AI’s Power Crunch Fuels a Pivot for These 2 Oilfield Stocks
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 7/16/2026.
Key Points
- SLB and Liberty Energy are forming a strategic alliance to provide modular infrastructure and power generation for data centers.
- Behind-the-meter power could help data center developers move faster when grid interconnection timelines are too long.
- Investors may need to weigh the companies’ AI power opportunity against continued cyclicality in their core oilfield services businesses.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
The physical constraints of artificial intelligence (AI) are no longer limited by silicon or compute capacity. Today, the single bottleneck constraining global technology expansion is electricity. Hyperscale data centers require staggering amounts of continuous power, and national utility grids lack the infrastructure to deliver gigawatt-scale loads on the timelines technology developers demand. Grid interconnection queues often stretch for years, forcing tech giants to seek immediate alternatives outside the traditional utility framework.
This structural challenge has activated an entirely unexpected sector. Legacy oilfield service providers are increasingly stepping in to fill the capacity gap, repurposing existing fossil fuel hardware to deliver modular natural gas power directly to data center sites. Investors watching this shift are seeing a rare moment in which heavy industrial assets are becoming primary enablers of next-generation technology.
Drilling for Data Center Solutions
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Click here to get the name and ticker of this AI stockThe July 2026 strategic alliance between SLB (NYSE: SLB) and Liberty Energy (NYSE: LBRT) illustrates this fundamental market shift. By combining modular infrastructure with integrated natural gas power generation, SLB and Liberty Energy are positioning themselves as critical capacity providers for the technology sector. The partnership bridges the gap between compute infrastructure and immediate power generation, creating a non-cyclical revenue stream that equity markets have yet to fully digest.
Rather than viewing SLB and Liberty Energy strictly as traditional upstream oilfield operators, market participants should begin evaluating them as essential infrastructure providers for the artificial intelligence ecosystem. This pivot offers a compelling blueprint for how legacy energy expertise can help solve immediate macroeconomic bottlenecks.
Behind-the-Meter Economics Take Charge
To understand the economic significance of this partnership, investors should examine the mechanics of behind-the-meter power.
Generating electricity behind the meter means producing power on-site, completely independent of the traditional utility transmission grid. For a data center developer, this eliminates multi-year delays waiting for utility lines to be built and approved by local regulators.
SLB brings deep project execution capabilities and prefabricated modular infrastructure to the table. The company has already shipped more than 1.3 gigawatts of infrastructure for data center projects since April 2024. Management expects cumulative global deliveries to exceed two gigawatts by the end of 2026. This is not speculative research and development; it is an active, monetized pipeline.
Liberty Energy provides the power generation systems and intelligent power controls through its Liberty Power Innovations arm. The company targets roughly three gigawatts of power projects by 2029.
The underlying margin tailwind for this venture rests on feedstock economics. North America has an abundance of structurally cheap natural gas.
Using this localized and inexpensive fuel source to run modular turbines makes the solution offered by SLB and Liberty Energy economically attractive relative to grid-tied utility power, while also bypassing bureaucratic utility timelines.
Mispriced Multiples and Cash Flow Visibility
Despite this strategic pivot toward secular growth, the market continues to misprice energy service companies. Institutional capital still largely treats them as cyclical fossil-fuel operators rather than as emerging technology infrastructure plays. SLB currently trades near $47, with a market capitalization of roughly $70.13 billion.
SLB operates with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 20.49 and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.13. Backed by solid operating cash flow of $4.65 per share, SLB supports a reliable 2.52% dividend yield. While SLB trades at a premium valuation relative to legacy peers like Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR) and Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), the stock remains heavily tied to international rig counts and Middle East capital expenditures rather than its digital and new energy initiatives.
Liberty Energy presents a more complex valuation puzzle for fundamental investors. Priced near $24.50 with a $4 billion market capitalization, Liberty Energy trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 27.14. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio is heavily distorted at 102.68. This multiple expansion reflects analysts modeling a sharp contraction in forward earnings per share, driven by immediate pricing headwinds in the core North American hydraulic fracturing market.
This valuation distortion creates an asymmetric opportunity. The market is pricing Liberty Energy strictly on the cyclical weakness of its legacy completion services, while largely discounting the high-margin cash flows emerging from its natural gas power generation pipeline. While awaiting broader market recognition, investors are supported by a newly authorized quarterly cash dividend of 9 cents per share, yielding 1.47%.
Seeing Past the Fracking Short Squeeze
Institutional sentiment across both equities reflects this fundamental misunderstanding of the evolving business models. SEC filings show a recent pattern of measured insider selling across both boards, including by Liberty Energy's chief financial officer, who divested shares in early July 2026.
Short sellers are heavily targeting Liberty Energy, driving the short interest ratio to bearish levels. Wall Street analysts remain focused on a 25% year-over-year decline in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization from Q1 2026. That decline was a direct result of the cooling domestic frac spread market, but it ignores the forward-looking growth engine. SLB faces a healthier short interest profile but continues to weather analyst price target reductions tied to global drilling fluctuations rather than its emerging capacity to power data centers.
When institutional capital stubbornly anchors to legacy metrics, observant investors gain a distinct advantage. The broader oilfield services sector is actively rerouting hardware to address technology infrastructure bottlenecks. Once revenue from behind-the-meter data center power eclipses traditional upstream operations, SLB and Liberty Energy will likely experience aggressive multiple expansion as the market correctly reclassifies them.
What to Watch as the Grid Transition Scales
The immediate proving ground for this fundamental thesis arrives with the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings reports. Liberty Energy takes the stage on July 22, 2026, followed closely by SLB on July 24, 2026.
Analysts will undoubtedly press management on core legacy operations, but the real value for forward-looking investors lies in commentary surrounding the new joint venture. Initial contract bookings, projected margins on power generation units, and the speed at which Liberty Energy can scale its three-gigawatt pipeline will determine how quickly institutional investors begin re-rating the stocks.
Investors monitoring the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom might consider adding SLB and Liberty Energy to their watchlists as earnings season approaches. Those comfortable absorbing near-term commodity cyclicality could view the current valuation distortion as an optimal entry point before Wall Street fully prices in the shift from fossil fuel service providers to gigawatt-scale technology vendors.
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