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Dear Reader,
Take a look at this chart:
That's the Buffett Indicator — the value of the entire stock market measured against U.S. GDP.
Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure" of where valuations stand.
"Playing with fire" — that's what he called readings near 200% back in the dot-com era.
Today it reads 229.9%. Higher than 1999. Higher than 2021. Near the highest level ever recorded.
At his final shareholder meeting, Buffett said people have never been "in a more gambling mood" than now.
His firm is sitting on a record $397 billion in cash.
So is a crash coming? That's the wrong question.
My name is Alexander Green. In 40 years as a professional investor, I've learned that charts like this never tell you WHEN. But there's a pattern that does.
That pattern is flashing again right now.
It says the AI boom isn't about to end. It's about to DIVIDE. One class of AI stocks on one side… a small group of overlooked winners on the other.
Which side of the Great AI Divide your money sits on could determine your wealth for the next decade.
I've laid out the whole pattern in a new presentation — and where the chart above fits in.
Click here to see which side you're on.
Good investing,
Alexander Green
Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club
TSMC Insiders Are Buying the Pullback—But Is the Signal as Bullish as It Looks?
By Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 8/3/2026.
Key Points
- Taiwan Semiconductor executives and directors, including the CEO, CFO, and COO, have made roughly $800,000 in open-market insider stock purchases since early July.
- Despite a post-earnings share price decline of about 20%, analysts covering TSMC have raised price targets and shifted sentiment strongly toward Buy ratings.
- Taiwan Semiconductor remains critical to the AI industry, controlling about 95% of the global GPU manufacturing market, though geopolitical and execution risks persist.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
Insider buying isn’t always the signal it once was, given the impact of share-based compensation and option timing on insider activity. However, meaningful signals may still be found, particularly because many insider purchases occur on the open market, such as those reported for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM). While 2026 activity is mixed, selling is concentrated among a small group of long-time employees with reasons to take profits. Buying, meanwhile, is broad-based across the C-suite and enterprise leadership, remains ongoing, and has been accelerated by the Q2 results.
InsiderTrades data reveals more than 30 insider buys since early July, just before the earnings release, with many occurring afterward. The buyers include the CEO, CFO, COO, numerous SVPs and VPs, and several directors. Together, they represent nearly $800,000 in purchases and a strong affirmation of the company’s forward outlook. Insiders currently own about 1.1% of the shares, a small stake that is offset by significant government and institutional holdings. Taiwan’s National Development Fund owns slightly more than 6%, while foreign and institutional investors remain major holders of the company’s Taiwan-listed shares and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).
Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Price Falls: Analysts Lift Targets
Small Colorado Company (Backed by Sam Altman) Could Save U.S. Power Grid (Ad)
A small Colorado company has secured rights to technology that could prevent the U.S. public power grid from collapsing — and billionaire Sam Altman is now an investor.
This under-the-radar firm is drawing serious attention from those watching the energy infrastructure space closely.
Click here to learn this company's name for free todayTaiwan Semiconductor’s price action is an example of a market-wide disconnect between valuations and opportunity. While TSMC’s share price fell following the July earnings report, analyst sentiment trends strengthened. The 16 analysts tracking the ADR as of early August are significantly more bullish than they were a year earlier, with the consensus rating firming to Buy and 15 of the 16 ratings on the buy side. The group includes 12 Buy ratings, three Strong Buy ratings, and one Hold. The consensus target in early August implies modest upside of 24% from critical support levels, while the trend points toward the high end of the range and substantially greater potential.
The technical action reflects solid support, with the Q2 and early Q3 pullback finding a bottom at a previous high. The takeaway is that TSMC’s share price experienced a natural pullback within a robust uptrend, shedding approximately 20% in the process and setting up for another run at all-time highs. The consensus estimate suggests a retest of existing highs is achievable, while analyst trends indicate that new highs are possible. TSMC’s monthly price action also reflects significant MACD convergence, echoing the forecast that new highs may be ahead.
Taiwan Semiconductor’s Q3 results are the likely catalyst for an upswing, unless it is triggered earlier by news from its leading client, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA). The company forecast revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, well above the previous consensus. The midpoint of approximately $45.2 billion would represent about 12% sequential growth and 37% year-over-year growth. Revenue could exceed the forecast, although advanced-packaging capacity remains a key constraint. However, memory makers are ramping up production and prioritizing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to meet GPU and AI demand. This sets the stage for stronger industry growth in upcoming quarters as both packaging and memory supplies improve.
Why Is Taiwan Semiconductor AI-Critical?
Taiwan Semiconductor is critical to AI because it manufactures most of the world’s advanced computing chips and serves as the backbone of the manufacturing processes used by NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD). Its advanced-packaging capabilities enable the integration of advanced technologies into single systems, which provide the processing power and energy efficiency required for AI.
In practical terms, Taiwan Semiconductor is the gatekeeper, manufacturing many of the advanced GPUs and AI accelerators used across the global market. Its moat lies in its operating model: As a pure-play foundry with no proprietary products, it can serve all leading GPU manufacturers without competing with them for end-market share, allowing those customers to trust it with their intellectual property.
Taiwan Semiconductor’s biggest risks are geopolitical and operational. Its geographic location raises the risk of Chinese aggression, a factor that limits the stock’s upside potential. This risk keeps TSMC trading at a discount to its peers, although the discount is only marginal.
The bigger risk is execution. As the world’s single most important GPU manufacturing bottleneck, the ramp-up of 2nm capacity is critical to the stock’s outlook. Delays and missteps could be reflected in the stock price, potentially causing a cascading effect as revenue and earnings targets are reset across the industry. Threats to production include the energy and water required to run advanced processes and the strain these requirements place on Taiwan’s infrastructure.
Advanced Micro Devices is the wild card. It is slated to begin commercial deliveries of its MI450 lineup and Helios rack solutions, an event that will affect TSMC’s outlook. Assuming AMD delivers the anticipated strength, TSMC’s forecast should solidify. Advanced Micro Devices is on track to see revenue grow 2x to 3x in the upcoming quarters and sustain that strength for many quarters as the inference industry gains traction.
3 Companies That Could Thrive While the Fed Holds Rates Steady
By Nathan Reiff. Originally Published: 8/11/2026.
Key Points
- Visa’s transaction-based model gives it consistent revenue growth without taking direct credit risk.
- Spotify’s subscriber base, margins and free cash flow continue to improve despite mixed post-earnings sentiment.
- UnitedHealth raised its 2026 outlook, reinforcing its defensive profile despite Medicaid and reimbursement pressures.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
Though many investors began 2026 assuming that the Federal Reserve would eventually lower interest rates, another trajectory has emerged amid conflict in the Middle East and renewed inflation concerns. The Fed has appeared comfortable keeping interest rates elevated until inflation can be brought under control, and some analysts have even predicted that rate increases could be in store. The Fed kept its benchmark rate in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its July 29 meeting, while three voting members preferred a quarter-point rate increase. Fortunately, some companies have consistent cash flow, strong balance sheets and limited dependence on inexpensive financing. Those traits can matter even more when rates remain steady or rise.
That shifts the focus away from companies waiting for borrowing costs to ease and toward companies that can continue compounding without help from lower rates. Businesses tied to transaction volume, recurring revenue or essential demand are better positioned than those whose growth depends on cheaper financing.
Visa's Execution Continues Despite Interest Rates
Small Colorado Company (Backed by Sam Altman) Could Save U.S. Power Grid (Ad)
A small Colorado company has secured rights to technology that could prevent the U.S. public power grid from collapsing — and billionaire Sam Altman is now an investor.
This under-the-radar firm is drawing serious attention from those watching the energy infrastructure space closely.
Click here to learn this company's name for free todayFew companies in or adjacent to the financial sector are as insulated from interest rate changes as Visa Inc. (NYSE: V). Banks that make loans or assume credit risk are, of course, heavily affected by these changes. Visa, on the other hand, collects fees from each transaction consumers or businesses make on its payment network.
This transaction-fee model has allowed Visa to generate consistent revenue and earnings growth even as the broader economic environment shifts. With the secular shift toward cashless payments worldwide and the continued growth in cross-border payment volumes, Visa is a prime beneficiary.
A look at Visa's latest earnings report helps confirm that trend. For Q3 2026, the company reported 14% year-over-year (YOY) net revenue growth and 11% YOY earnings-per-share (EPS) growth; both results topped analyst estimates. The growth was driven by 10% increases in payments volume and processed transactions. What's more, the company has benefited from improved commercial payments volume, Visa Direct transaction growth and higher revenue from value-added services. It is not relying on a single part of its business to fuel gains.
Visa's excellent financial profile, including robust free cash flow, allows it to pay a stable dividend while also making aggressive share repurchases and ongoing investments in new technologies to support its expanding payments network. This could help explain why the company has 31 Buy ratings and not a single Sell or Hold, signaling unanimous analyst support.
Spotify Combines Financial Improvement With a Loyal Premium Subscriber Base
Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT) is the dominant music-streaming platform, with a market capitalization of nearly $100 billion. The company spent years prioritizing subscriber growth over profitability, but significant operating-efficiency initiatives have led to improving financial results, even as many artists have spoken out against the company's payment practices.
In the company's Q2 2026 earnings report, Spotify highlighted several improvements, including 14% YOY revenue growth, a 21% YOY increase in gross profit and gross margins that rose to 33.4% from 31.5% a year earlier. Free cash flow also climbed 14% YOY to 797 million euros (approximately $920 million). These results were driven by a combination of improving profitability and subscriber growth, with total monthly active users increasing 12% YOY.
Spotify's margin, earnings and free cash flow gains, combined with continued Premium subscriber growth, help the company thrive despite higher interest rates. The subscriber growth also suggests that customers have generally accepted the company's price increases. Subscription-based models like Spotify's generate predictable recurring revenue, while the company's advertising arm provides an additional pathway for long-term growth.
An impressive 20 out of 26 analysts have rated SPOT shares a Buy, and the company has nearly 25% upside potential.
UnitedHealth Stands Out for Stability Despite Medicaid and Reimbursement Hurdles
As one of the most defensive sectors, healthcare includes companies that are practically built for high-rate environments. UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH), a major diversified health care company, stands out for its reliability.
Because healthcare utilization tends to remain relatively stable throughout economic cycles, a company like UNH can generate steady revenue regardless of interest rate movements. This is not to discount the impact of reimbursement trends, regulatory changes and other factors, though these challenges are often more manageable for a company of UNH's size and scope.
This is perhaps why UNH was recently able to raise its full-year 2026 outlook for adjusted EPS and operating earnings even as commercial medical costs remain elevated and Medicaid remains under significant pressure. It could also explain why the company retains strong analyst support (22 Buys against five Holds) despite those external challenges.
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