SPY 779.65: a Record Close. The Rotation Map Is Sending a Different Signal.

Payrolls printed 29,000, consumer sentiment sits at 48.1, and the sectors now leading the index are Energy and Utilities — not Technology.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Read online Market Memo Sector Rotation Intelligence ► CURRENT POSITIONING: Cycle: LATE EXPANSION Overweight: XLK · XLE · XLU Underweight: XLY · XLRE SPY779.65+0.62% UST 10Y5.27%−4bp DXY101.8−0.35% VIX15.31−0.21 GOLD$4,170+0.8% WTI$87.99−1.61%     Trump Clears Way for New ‘Bank of Musk’  Something strange is happening. A few of the most powerful people in Congress are scrambling to stop Elon Musk’s latest innovation. Led by Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is fighting it tooth and nail. Meanwhile, Musk is rolling it out to millions of Americans… with the full blessing of President Trump and the U.S. Treasury. And starting January 18, he could take it one step further... issuing his own digital dollars. When that happens, his backers could make a fortune. Go here for the full story.     Morning Briefing Energy and Utilities Lead Together as SPY Hits Another Record SPY closed at 779.65 on Tuesday — another record high — while the 10-year yield eased 4 basis points to 5.27% and WTI crude fell 1.61% to $87.99. The index looks strong. The rotation map tells a different story. For the first time this cycle, Energy and Utilities share the Leading quadrant. Technology and Health Care still carry positive relative strength scores, but both are decelerating — they sit in Weakening. The most cyclical and the most defensive sector are leading together, a pairing that rarely lasts. This matters because something unexpected happened this week that our readers should notice. Utilities — one of the two most rate-sensitive sectors on the board — surged to an RS of +4.20, vaulting into the Leading quadrant for the first time this cycle. Real Estate also ticked higher in relative strength, moving into Improving at −5.50. That 4-basis-point retreat in the 10-year was part of the catalyst. The drought in the Improving quadrant that lasted since early October is over. Meanwhile, Energy's relative strength surged. XLE's composite RS jumped from −2.40 to +4.36 over the week, pushing it into Leading even as WTI broke below $88. The divergence between Energy's RS and the crude price is notable and bears watching.     Forget SpaceX: Elon’s Next Big Bet James Altucher here with an urgent message... Over the last twenty years I have made a few predictions about stocks that got me laughed at, right up until they came true. In 2007 I went on live TV and said Facebook would be worth more than $100 billion. The anchors laughed at me on air. Five years later it went public at almost exactly that number. I called Apple's run to a trillion. And I called Netflix before almost anyone. Now, I am reaching out today with another “crazy” prediction. And it’s because of three words Elon Musk recently used. "Infinite Money Glitch." That’s what Elon is calling a groundbreaking new class of technology about to take the world by storm. And, by my calculations, it’s not much of an exaggeration. If this technology works like Elon says it will, I predict $2 quadrillion in new wealth by the end of the next decade. I have put together a short presentation on what it is, and why I believe this could be the biggest wealth event of our lifetime. [▶️ Watch the presentation here]       THE BIG PICTURE     We are deep in late expansion. GDP printed 2.2%, ISM manufacturing is running at 54.5, and the Fed just hiked to 3.75–4.00% — yet consumer sentiment is stuck at 48.1 and payrolls came in at just 29,000. The rotation map now shows a market with two unlikely co-leaders, two fading winners, and one beaten-down sector just beginning to turn. This is what the late cycle looks like when it starts to pivot: the old winners slow down, unlikely sectors surge into the lead, and the index keeps climbing as if nothing has changed.   Sector Rotation Terminal Performance Heatmap vs SPY Ticker Sector 1W 1M 3M 6M XLE Energy −3.10 +0.50 +4.00 +18.60 XLB Materials −0.20 −2.70 −5.10 −3.60 XLI Industrials +0.20 −1.80 −3.40 +2.50 XLU Utilities +0.40 +2.40 +6.00 −14.20 XLK Technology +2.16 +6.96 +6.60 +29.80 XLC Comm Svc −0.10 −0.90 −2.60 +4.20 XLF Financials −0.30 −3.60 −4.10 −1.90 XLY Cons Disc −0.10 −4.20 −6.50 −8.90 XLRE Real Estate −3.40 −7.60 −8.70 −22.90 XLV Health Care +0.50 +2.30 −0.20 +1.80 XLP Cons Staples −0.40 −2.10 −3.90 −4.80 Relative Strength Ranking composite RS vs SPY # Ticker Sector RS Dir Quad 1 XLK Technology +5.35 ▼ WEAKENING 2 XLE Energy +4.36 ▲ LEADING 3 XLU Utilities +4.20 ▲ LEADING 4 XLV Health Care +1.05 ▼ WEAKENING 5 XLC Comm Svc −1.75 ▼ LAGGING 6 XLI Industrials −2.60 ▼ LAGGING 7 XLP Cons Staples −3.00 ▼ LAGGING 8 XLF Financials −3.85 ▼ LAGGING 9 XLB Materials −3.90 ▼ LAGGING 10 XLY Cons Disc −5.35 ▼ LAGGING 11 XLRE Real Estate −5.50 ▲ IMPROVING Rotation Map performance quadrants ■ LEADING — winning, getting stronger XLEEnergyXLUUtilities ■ WEAKENING — still winning, starting to fade XLKTechXLVHealth ■ LAGGING — losing, getting worse XLCComm SvcXLIIndustrialXLPStaplesXLFFinancialsXLBMaterialsXLYCons Disc ■ IMPROVING — losing, turning the corner XLREReal Est Economic Cycle Overlay phase estimate RECOVERY EARLY EXP LATE EXP CONTRACTION SECTORS HISTORICALLY FAVORED XLE EnergyXLK TechnologyXLV Health CareXLP Staples What Late Expansion Means GDP is positive at 2.2% but decelerating from prior quarters. The Fed just hiked to 3.75–4.00% with ISM manufacturing holding above 50 at 54.5. Inflation is sticky at 2.4% core CPI. Payrolls slowed sharply to +29K. In this phase, Energy and Technology tend to outperform on pricing power and capital efficiency while rate-sensitive sectors like Utilities and Real Estate typically lag under rising yields. The rotation map broadly confirms this pattern, though Utilities are a notable exception this week. Late expansion typically lasts 6–18 months before transitioning to contraction. What the Rotation Is Telling Us WATCH Energy's RS Surges From Negative Territory as XLE Decouples From Crude XLE's composite relative strength jumped from −2.40 to +4.36 over the past week, pushing Energy into the Leading quadrant even as WTI crude fell 1.61% to $87.99. The divergence between spot crude and Energy's relative strength is unusual. In the last two late-expansion episodes (2018 and 2007), Energy's RS peaked and then halved over a four-to-six week window before the broader market rolled over. This time, Energy is accelerating from negative territory. Whether the crude market catches up or XLE gives back these gains will tell us which late-expansion script we are running. BEARISH Energy and Utilities Share the Leading Quadrant — A Rare Late-Cycle Signal The Leading quadrant now holds two names that rarely coexist: Energy and Utilities. Energy benefits from inflation and commodity strength; Utilities from falling yields and risk-off positioning. Their simultaneous presence in Leading — while Technology decelerates in Weakening with an RS of +5.35 — suggests the market is pricing conflicting scenarios. An Energy-Utilities co-leadership in late expansion has historically been short-lived. When these unlikely co-leaders break apart and the Improving quadrant fills with more names, the cycle will be sending its next signal. BULLISH Utilities Vault Into Leading While Real Estate Enters Improving The rate-sensitive corner of the market is shifting. XLU surged to an RS of +4.20, entering the Leading quadrant for the first time this cycle, while XLRE ticked higher in relative strength and moved into Improving at −5.50 after a 4-basis-point retreat in the 10-year yield to 5.27%. XLRE's RS remains deeply negative, so that is not a buying signal — it is a directional change. But XLU's move into Leading is more than directional — it is a statement. In prior late-expansion cycles, the first reappearance of rate-sensitive sectors in Leading or Improving preceded a broader rotation into defensives by three to five weeks. The Bottom Line   We remain in late expansion. Capital is still flowing into Technology, Energy, Health Care, and now Utilities on a relative basis. Energy and Utilities sit in Leading; Technology and Health Care carry positive RS but are losing speed in Weakening. The index at a record high is telling one story. The rotation map — with an unusual Energy-Utilities leadership pairing, fading tech momentum, and the first stir in beaten-down Real Estate — is telling another. We hold our overweight in XLK, XLE, and XLU and our underweight in XLY and XLRE, but the Energy-Utilities co-leadership is on watch. When these new leaders cross into Weakening and the Improving quadrant fills with more than one name, the cycle will be sending its final warning.   Published daily 7:30 AM ET • Not financial advice   Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 Market Memo by Sellet LLC 13860 Wellington Trace 38-256 Wellington, Florida 33414, United States