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Why Platinum May Catch Up to Gold in 2026—And How to Get Exposure
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 12/30/2025.
Quick Look
- Platinum remains historically undervalued relative to gold and offers a compelling value proposition for investors seeking a catch-up trade in precious metals.
- A persistent structural supply deficit, combined with expanding demand from the green hydrogen economy, is putting upward pressure on platinum prices.
- The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF provides investors with a liquid, transparent way to gain exposure to physical platinum without the logistical hurdles.
As 2025 draws to a close, the financial world is fixated on gold, and rightly so. The yellow metal has shattered nominal records, driven by geopolitical instability and central bank buying. Yet while gold captures headlines, a quieter — and possibly more potent — opportunity has emerged in the precious metals complex. Platinum, the industrial workhorse often overshadowed by its monetary cousin, is staging a breakout.
Trading near $2,100 per ounce, platinum rallied significantly in the fourth quarter. Despite these gains, it remains historically cheap relative to gold. For investors, that disconnect presents a classic value proposition. While gold serves as a hedge against fear, platinum is being driven by physical scarcity and a global shift in the industrial sector. Looking toward 2026, the data suggest platinum — sometimes called the "rich man's gold" — is poised for a meaningful catch-up trade.
The Valuation Gap: Why Platinum Is Technically Cheap
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To gauge platinum's upside, investors should first consider the Gold-to-Platinum Ratio, which measures how many ounces of platinum are required to buy a single ounce of gold.
Historically, this relationship favored platinum. Before 2011, platinum frequently traded at a premium to gold, often around a 1.2x premium. Geologically this made sense: platinum is far rarer than gold in the Earth's crust. Over the last decade, however, market dynamics flipped that relationship.
As of December 2025, the ratio stands at roughly 1.4x — meaning gold costs about 1.4 times as much as platinum. While this spread has narrowed from recent extremes, it still looks anomalous versus the long-term average, which has been near parity (about 1:1).
The investment case for platinum rests on mean reversion. If the ratio normalizes closer to 1:1, platinum would need to climb substantially to catch up with gold, even if gold prices remain flat. That potential re-rating provides asymmetric upside for value-minded investors that is largely absent in the record-high gold market.
The Supply Floor: Analyzing the Structural Deficit
Valuation gaps attract attention, but physical scarcity provides the price floor. Platinum's fundamentals are defined by a structural deficit. According to data from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), 2025 marked the third consecutive year in which global demand exceeded supply, with the shortfall estimated at about 850,000–966,000 ounces.
Why don't miners just ramp up production when prices rise? The answer lies in the geography and economics of platinum mining. Roughly 70% of global supply comes from South Africa, where producers face several structural headwinds:
- Energy instability: South Africa's national power utility, Eskom, has struggled with reliability. Deep-level mining operations require consistent electricity, and power constraints force mines to limit production.
- Byproduct economics: Platinum is rarely mined alone — it is often recovered alongside palladium and rhodium. Weak prices for these companion metals can make mining uneconomical even when platinum itself is higher, constraining near-term supply response.
Secondary supply from recycling has also underperformed. High interest rates and economic uncertainty have encouraged consumers to hold vehicles longer, delaying the return of scrap platinum from catalytic converters to the market.
From Industry to Vaults: Who Is Buying Platinum?
With constrained supply, demand is expanding on two fronts: the green economy and physical investment.
The most compelling narrative for 2026 is the hydrogen economy. Platinum is a critical catalyst in two key technologies driving that transition:
- PEM electrolyzers: These use electricity to split water into oxygen and green hydrogen.
- Fuel cells: These power heavy-duty trucks and other vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions, and can convert hydrogen into electricity for data centers or the grid.
For years, this demand was largely theoretical. In 2026, however, many large-scale projects in Europe and the Middle East are scheduled to move from planning into commercial operation, converting projected demand into actual procurement and physical purchases.
The China Factor
Beyond industrial demand, investment interest is rising. Similar to gold, platinum has seen growing demand from Chinese investors — a segment that expanded by nearly 47% in 2025. That shift reflects a growing recognition of platinum not only as an industrial metal but also as a store of value and hedge against currency risk.
Executing the Trade: Understanding the Vehicle
For most U.S. investors, buying physical bullion is inefficient given dealer markups, shipping fees, and security costs. The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: PPLT) (PPLT) addresses these hurdles.
PPLT is structured as a grantor trust, meaning shares are backed by allocated physical platinum bars stored in secure vaults in London and Zurich. The holdings are inspected twice annually, offering investors transparency that the metal exists.
The ETF is designed to track the spot price of platinum, minus the trust's expenses, which currently run about 0.60% per year. The fund also provides strong liquidity, making it easy to enter and exit positions.
A Critical Note on Taxes
Investors should be aware of the tax treatment. Because PPLT holds physical metal, the IRS treats it as a collectible:
- Short-term gains: Taxed at your ordinary income rate.
- Long-term gains (held >1 year): Taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, rather than the lower long-term capital gains rates that apply to most stocks.
Why Platinum Belongs in Your Portfolio
The stars appear to be aligning for platinum as we head into 2026. The market faces a persistent structural deficit that miners are struggling to close due to infrastructure and economic constraints. At the same time, the green energy transition is beginning to generate real industrial demand, while value-seeking capital flows are starting to catch up with gold.
Risks remain — notably that a global recession could reduce industrial consumption — but the mix of historic undervaluation and physical scarcity offers a compelling risk-reward profile. For investors who feel they missed the gold rally, the abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF provides a practical way to participate in the next leg of the precious metals cycle.
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