MARKET PULSE
The 10-Year Yield Climbed on a Rebound Day
The Nasdaq Composite was up about 1.1% from Friday's close at 1:51 p.m. Eastern. Most of that gain came at the open. The iShares Semiconductor ETF was up about 1.7%.
The rebound followed a week in which the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 11.4%. It ended with eight straight daily declines, its longest losing streak since 2008.
The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 5.14% in the early afternoon, above Friday's 5.09% close. Builder sentiment fell to 29 in October from 32, the National Association of Home Builders said.
Brent fell about 2% overnight, then recovered to near Friday's $109.86 settlement by early afternoon. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said over the weekend that Gulf crude flows were back near 80% of prewar levels. The Energy Department has not published that figure. Fed officials are in their quiet period before the Oct. 27 to 28 meeting.
Investor Signal
Can stocks keep rebounding if yields keep rising? Monday's rally came with a higher 10-year yield, not cheaper money. Housing feels higher rates first. Housing starts well below Econoday's consensus of about 1.31 million on Tuesday would show rates reaching construction.
CHIPS AND CREDIT
CoreWeave Gave Back Its Upgrade Gain as Chipmakers Rallied
Buyers returned to chipmakers on Monday. In the early afternoon, Micron (MU) was up nearly 3% and Nvidia (NVDA) about 1.5%. Intel (INTC) rose nearly 3% on a day JPMorgan (JPM) raised its rating to neutral from underweight.
CoreWeave (CRWV) did not hold on. It rose early after Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded it to buy, then turned lower. It was down about 2% in the early afternoon, after a 12% drop on Friday.
The split tracks who pays for AI. Goldman Sachs expects the five largest cloud and platform companies to spend about $1.2 trillion on capital projects next year. Much of the wider build-out, including data centers leased to those companies, is funded with debt.
Investor Signal
Is the selloff over for everyone, or only for companies with the deepest cash flows? Chipmakers' biggest customers are the cloud giants. CoreWeave borrows to buy chips, so its cost of money shapes its margins. A close with chips up and CoreWeave down would extend the split.
AI CAMPUSES
An Oracle Campus Has Buildings but No Power. Its Debt Traded Near 80 Cents.
The debt behind AI data centers faces the same test. Project Jupiter is a New Mexico campus leased by Oracle (ORCL). Some of its roughly $18 billion of debt recently sold at about 80 cents on the dollar, The New York Times reported. In September it was quoted at 89 to 91 cents, the Financial Times reported.
The buildings are near completion but have no power. A state hearing on the air permit for the campus's on-site power now begins Dec. 7, replacing a Nov. 23 decision deadline. Blue Owl (OWL), the developer, has about $3 billion of equity in the project, Reuters reported, citing a person familiar with it.
Power is also the issue at a British site. Microsoft (MSFT) ended its agreement for Nscale's Loughton site, The Telegraph reported Sunday. Grid officials had told Nscale not to expect power there until the 2030s. Microsoft did not give a reason. Nscale, which filed for a U.S. listing last month, said its other contracts are unaffected.
Investor Signal
What is a signed AI contract worth without power? Neither project lost its customer's demand. Both lost time. In Jupiter's case, debt buyers now want to be paid for that delay. Blue Owl reports before the open on Oct. 29, which could give the first sponsor mark on Jupiter.
BANKS
Fifth Third's Loan Losses Stayed Low With Yields Above 5%
Away from AI, the first large regional bank to report this week showed steady credit. Fifth Third (FITB) earned 90 cents a share. Excluding merger charges and other items, it earned $1.13.
Net charge-offs ran at 0.31% of loans. Core deposits rose 3% from the second quarter.
Higher rates cut both ways for regional lenders. Loans reprice upward, but deposit costs rise and commercial property borrowers feel the strain. Zions (ZION) and insurer W. R. Berkley (WRB) report after the close.
Investor Signal
Is rate pressure reaching ordinary borrowers? At Fifth Third, not yet. So far the strain sits with AI's borrowers, not with the banks' everyday loan books. A rise in loan-loss provisions at Zions tonight would point to pressure spreading beyond AI.
BITCOIN
Strategy Spent Nearly Nine Times as Much on Its Own Preferred as on Bitcoin
The pull toward balance sheets reached crypto too. From Friday's close to 1:51 p.m., bitcoin rose only about 0.35% while the Nasdaq gained about 1.1%. Coinbase (COIN) was down about 2.4%.
Strategy (MSTR) bought 267 bitcoin for $22.1 million between Oct. 12 and Oct. 18, a Monday filing showed. It spent $193.1 million buying back its STRC preferred stock, nearly nine times as much. Its board raised the preferred buyback authorization to $3 billion from $2 billion.
Fund buyers have stepped back as well. Spot ether funds have lost about $955 million in October, the largest monthly outflow of 2026, according to SoSoValue.
Investor Signal
Who buys bitcoin when its largest corporate buyer buys its own paper? Strategy's repurchases averaged about $99.60 a share, below the preferred's $100 stated value. Buying it back defends a funding tool, but it takes a buyer out of the market. Another week of bigger buybacks than bitcoin purchases would confirm the shift.
PARTNER SPOTLIGHT
Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks—Here's Why
The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century.
For the full story, click here.
CLOSING LENS
Monday split chipmakers from a borrower building on their chips. Chip stocks rebounded while CoreWeave did not, and debt behind one Oracle-leased campus has recently traded well below face value.
Power and money now set the pace of the build-out. Meta Platforms (META) reports after Wednesday's close, and its spending plan will show how much of the next round one of the largest buyers pays for itself.
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