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Right now, a small group of stocks could be sitting in front of the biggest gains I've seen in my career.
And I think the catalyst just hit... in a remote mine up in the Canadian north.
The last time this sector had a shock like the one forming now, tiny producers went vertical.
One could have turned a $1,000 stake into more than $1.3 million.
It started in October 2006. A half-built mine called Cigar Lake breached its wall, water poured in faster than the pumps could handle, and the most important new source of supply on Earth vanished under the floodwater.
Uranium ran from the $50 range to $136 in eight months.
Then this past May, the water came back.
Flooding washed out the supply route into the largest uranium complex on the planet, and the biggest high-grade mine in the world scaled back.
In July, Cigar Lake went down a second time.
The exact mine that lit the fuse in 2006... choking off supply again, at the worst possible moment.
For the third time in fifty years, the same forces are stacking on this sector at once.
I'm calling it the Third Convergence Event.
And I've put my own money behind three small companies sitting directly in front of it.
Let's get it,
Gerardo Del Real
Only 20 Stocks Are Holding Up the Market: 3 Bargains Outside AI
Reported by Bridget Bennett. Published: 10/8/2026.
Key Points
- Whitney Tilson argues record index highs mask a broad bear market, since 19 of the top 20 S&P 500 contributors are AI-related while most stocks lag.
- Tilson favors three non-AI value picks: speculative Joby Aviation, undervalued Casey's General Stores, and underappreciated Eli Lilly, each hit by sentiment rather than fundamentals.
- Each stock has a specific catalyst to watch: Joby's first commercial flight, Casey's in-store same-store sales, and Eli Lilly's retatrutide FDA filing.
- Special Report: Grand Canyon Discovery Reshapes America's Energy Tax Credits.
The market has hit a record high, and almost none of that gain belongs to the average stock.
That gap is where Whitney Tilson of Stansberry Research is doing his shopping. His case is that the index is masking a broad bear market underneath and that the clearest values currently sit outside artificial intelligence. Three names carry the argument: a speculation, an off-the-radar mid-cap and the world's largest drugmaker.
A Record-High Index Is Masking a Market-Wide Bear Market
Record Revenue Gold Silver Royalty Firm Still Trades Below 1 Dollar (Ad)
A small-cap gold and silver royalty company is generating record revenue from producing mines, yet shares still trade under 1 dollar.
It just signed the largest transaction in its history, a new gold streaming deal backed by a strategic relationship with a major mining investment firm.
A well-known sector financier has invested his own money and joins the CEO in an exclusive interview breaking down the full story.
Click here for instant access to the free report nowBy Tilson's count, 19 of the 20 largest contributors to the S&P 500 this year are AI-related, and those names account for essentially the entire 13% index return. The other 480 stocks are collectively flat. Roughly 59% of S&P 500 components trade at least 20% below their all-time highs, and about one in six is down 50% or more.
That is what a bifurcated market looks like, and it is why a value investor staring at a 99th-percentile Shiller multiple still has a long shopping list.
Tilson follows the old Buffett-Munger approach: estimate what a private buyer would pay for the whole business, then buy at a steep discount. The strategy requires the market to make mistakes, and a market this narrow makes plenty. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) was a recent example. Investors priced in the possibility that agentic AI would gut enterprise software subscriptions, but large corporations declined to rip out systems that worked, and the stock recovered sharply.
Joby Aviation Is a Speculation With a Second Buyer Attached
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) builds electric aircraft that take off vertically and then rotate their motors forward to fly. The aircraft operates like a helicopter but is roughly 99% quieter, which is the entire commercial argument: Most helicopters are not welcome over cities.
Tilson first recommended the stock near $7 three years ago. It tripled, then round-tripped back to about $7 and a $6 billion market cap. The caveats are significant: no revenue, no FAA approval and no commercial flights. This is a position to size carefully, not a core holding.
The market is pricing in a delay. Commercial service in the United Arab Emirates, a 30-minute trip between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, was delayed when regional conflict interrupted the timeline, and investors who saw no near-term catalyst sold. U.S. approval is realistically one to two years away, although Joby sits further along than any competitor.
What could change sentiment is the first paying flight. What limits the downside is everything else the company owns: electric motor and battery technology, an engineering team and aircraft already delivered to the U.S. Air Force, where a silent airframe has obvious value. If air taxis never become a business, Tilson expects a bidding war from electric vehicle makers and defense contractors.
Casey's General Stores Looks Like Walmart Did in 1988
Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) operates about 3,000 convenience stores across 19 states from its Des Moines headquarters, generating roughly $18 billion in revenue against a $22 billion market cap. It is the third-largest convenience chain in the United States and the fifth-largest seller of pizza, which is the point: The high-margin "inside" business carries the model, and more than half of sales now run through the app.
The stock fell about 34% in two months, reducing its valuation from 35 times forward earnings to 26 times. The trigger was a quarter in which fuel margin drove the beat while in-store comps decelerated and management reaffirmed, rather than raised, guidance. At a premium multiple, reaffirming guidance is not enough.
Nothing about the company's competitive position changed. Walmart (NYSE: WMT) generated the same $18.6 billion in trailing sales in mid-1988, with nearly identical profitability and almost the same forward multiple, and has since become close to a 100-bagger. The comparison is not a forecast. It is a reminder that 26 times earnings is cheap for a business that can compound earnings at a double-digit rate for a decade. Casey's targets towns of 500 to 20,000 people, and Texas alone has roughly 2,000 of them.
Eli Lilly's Next Obesity Drug Is the Part the Market Is Discounting
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) carries a trillion-dollar market cap and trades near 40 times trailing earnings, making it look like a story investors have already missed. Tilson believes the company is in the middle innings at most.
Two factors support that view. The first is retatrutide, Lilly's next-generation weight-loss candidate and the first to target three hormone receptors at once, rather than the two targeted by tirzepatide in Zepbound and Mounjaro. Average weight loss in trials has been closer to 29%, compared with roughly 20% for Zepbound, with less muscle loss. Lilly plans to file with the FDA in early 2027, putting a launch in late 2027 at the earliest.
The second is the size of the eventual market. Studies continue to identify benefits beyond weight loss, including effects on fatty liver disease, sleep apnea, inflammation, cholesterol and addictive behavior. The argument is that demand eventually extends beyond people who need to lose weight, with low-dose use becoming common among those who do not.
Using estimates that Tilson believes are too conservative, Lilly trades near 28 times forward earnings, below where it has traded for most of the past few years.
Where the Risk and the Upside Sit
The risks are uneven. Joby can drift for quarters without a catalyst and lose goodwill along the way. Casey's needs in-store comps to stabilize, because a fuel-led beat leaves guidance looking fragile. Lilly faces real pricing pressure across the category and a long regulatory runway before retatrutide sells a single dose.
The upside shares one trait: All three stocks sold off on sentiment rather than broken fundamentals, which is the only condition under which a value approach works at all.
Watch the catalysts instead of the quotes: Joby's first commercial flights, Casey's inside same-store sales and Lilly's retatrutide filing. Those are the developments that could move these three stocks.
For investors looking for more of Tilson's insights, visit here.
3 Stocks Raise Dividends, But Which Has Room to Keep Growing?
Reported by Leo Miller. Published: 10/12/2026.
Key Points
- Starbucks raised its dividend by 1.6% to a 2.8% yield despite a high payout ratio, while reportedly exploring a takeover of Chipotle.
- Accenture increased its quarterly dividend by 5% to $1.71 per share after strong earnings drove shares up more than 15%, pushing its yield near 3.5%.
- Curtiss-Wright hiked its dividend 8.3% and expanded buybacks to $700 million, though its yield remains small amid defense sector weakness and leadership turnover.
- Special Report: Grand Canyon Discovery Reshapes America's Energy Tax Credits.
Several big-name stocks across the consulting, defense and consumer discretionary industries are increasing their dividends. Two of these names offer sizable yields above 2.5%, while a lower-yielding company has strong potential to continue increasing its dividend over time.
Among this group, recent developments at coffee giant Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) stand out. Despite a very high payout ratio and being in the midst of a turnaround, the company is boosting its dividend and has reportedly explored purchasing a massive restaurant chain.
Accenture Lifts Dividend, Soars After Latest Earnings
Record Revenue Gold Silver Royalty Firm Still Trades Below 1 Dollar (Ad)
A small-cap gold and silver royalty company is generating record revenue from producing mines, yet shares still trade under 1 dollar.
It just signed the largest transaction in its history, a new gold streaming deal backed by a strategic relationship with a major mining investment firm.
A well-known sector financier has invested his own money and joins the CEO in an exclusive interview breaking down the full story.
Click here for instant access to the free report nowConsulting giant Accenture (NYSE: ACN) has had a difficult run in 2026, with shares down approximately 23%. While the stock remains deeply in the red, the situation was much worse earlier in the year. Through mid-June, Accenture stock had fallen more than 50%. One key factor driving the decline was concern that companies could use AI tools to improve their operations, reducing demand for traditional consulting services.
However, shares shot up more than 15% after the company released its latest results. Accenture’s revenue of $18.7 billion was well above expectations, and the firm added nearly 100 clients that initiated their first advanced AI consulting projects with the company.
Accenture also announced a 5% dividend increase, raising its quarterly payment to $1.71. The firm will pay its next dividend on Nov. 13 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 13. Following the increase, Accenture now offers a sizable forward dividend yield of nearly 3.5%.
The company is also in a strong position when it comes to dividend sustainability. Its payout ratio is approximately 48%, well below the 60% level that analysts generally consider healthy. Analysts expect the firm’s payout ratio to improve meaningfully, to around 41%, based on next year’s estimates.
Curtiss-Wright Ups Dividend and Buybacks Amid Defense Downturn
Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW) operates in both the defense and nuclear power industries. Shares put up a strong performance through much of 2026, rising more than 31% through the end of July. However, the stock has taken a turn for the worse in recent months and is now in the red for the year.
Much of this decline has been due to weakness in defense stocks overall. Uncertainty surrounding future defense spending levels has contributed to the weakness, particularly as the midterm elections approach.
Curtiss-Wright has also faced significant leadership changes, including the appointment of a new CEO and the resignation of its CFO, which has weighed on shares.
Nonetheless, Curtiss-Wright announced a significant 8.3% dividend increase, raising its payment to 26 cents per share, although its yield remains small at approximately 0.2%.
The payment date for this latest dividend has passed, but investors can likely receive the increased dividend in future quarters, given the company’s rock-bottom payout ratio of approximately 7%.
This very low payout ratio suggests that the firm can continue increasing its dividend over time, albeit from a small base. The company is also looking to return capital through buybacks, recently increasing its authorization to $700 million, equal to around 3.7% of its market capitalization.
Starbucks Boosts Dividend Amid Chipotle Acquisition Chatter
Starbucks has seen a moderate recovery in its share price during 2026. After delivering a negative 5.3% return in 2025, Starbucks is up approximately 9% year to date.
In its last two earnings reports, Starbucks posted considerable beats on both sales and earnings per share (EPS). Last quarter, Starbucks raised its full-year global comparable sales guidance to nearly 6% and increased its full-year EPS guidance to between $2.55 and $2.65. However, the stock has also come under pressure recently following reports that the company explored a takeover of Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG).
Amid these developments, Starbucks announced a small 1.6% dividend increase, lifting its yield to a strong 2.8%. The company will pay its next 63-cent-per-share dividend on Nov. 27 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 13.
Based on the last 12 months of earnings, its payout ratio of 142% clearly appears unsustainable. However, that figure drops significantly to 95% based on current-year estimates, and analysts expect a further decline to 79% based on next year’s estimates. Nonetheless, these figures remain elevated, making Starbucks’ ability to continue growing its earnings key to sustaining dividend growth.
Niccol’s Next Move: Is a Chipotle Deal on the Menu?
It is important to monitor whether Starbucks actually pursues a Chipotle takeover, a proposition with both pros and cons. Starbucks’ CEO, Brian Niccol, was formerly the CEO of Chipotle. This should give Niccol significant insight into Chipotle’s business and an understanding of why the acquisition could be accretive to Starbucks. Additionally, Chipotle shares are down more than 50% from their all-time highs, making the deal more attractive to Starbucks.
Still, it is questionable whether such an acquisition makes sense at this time, as Starbucks is in the middle of a business turnaround. The company recently lowered its net new-store additions guidance to 440 from between 600 and 650, laid off hundreds of employees and plans to invest $1 billion in store renovations. Acquiring and integrating a giant company like Chipotle would significantly increase operational complexity and execution risk, although it could result in long-term synergies.
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